Mistake after mistake: Armenia has no luck with September

The Armenian side is very unlucky with September. It's just a fateful month for her. Surely, astrologers would advise Yerevan to be very careful this month and keep a good eye on language and affairs.

This September, I think, will not be an exception. It has already started quite violently. A lot of things happened in the world on the first Monday in September. But the main intrigue for our region was the following: will Nikol Pashinyan deliver a message on the occasion of the "independence day" of the non-existent "Nagorno-Karabakh"? Everyone remembers his message from last year, full of expression and anguish. That message contained everything - the "right to self-determination," the "threat of ethnic cleansing," the "blockade," and promises to "continue efforts." Pashinyan argued that the Armenians, together with the international community, have spoken their word and the Karabakh issue should be resolved this way and that way. 

We did not understand what kind of word the Armenians and the world community said there, but a short time after that the Azerbaijani army said its word, and even the visionary Pashinyan could not help but admit after September 19 that the topic of Karabakh was closed.

Having congratulated the Armenians illegally living on Azerbaijani soil a year ago, Nikol Pashinyan did not know that in just a couple of weeks everything would change dramatically. At that time, he was sure that the hysterical international campaign organized around the action on the Lachin road would begin to produce results, Baku would retreat, and he would become the prime minister who "stood to the end." The Prime Minister, Speaker Alain Simonyan and other Armenian officials congratulated the separatists, urged them to hold on and promised that everything would be "OK". Pashinyan actually put an end to the negotiation process that day. Territorial claims against Azerbaijan have been unequivocally expressed, and all the progress achieved in the three post-war years has been nullified.

As a result, in September 2023, we found ourselves at the same line that separated peace from war in 2020. There are a lot of parallels. Then the Prime Minister of Armenia also danced in the Shusha and made stupid statements. His defense minister promised the Armenians a new war and new lands. At that time, the Armenian side was confident that Azerbaijan would never decide to change anything and, relying on the support of world powers and international organizations, felt completely safe. Nothing much has changed in the minds of the Armenian establishment since September 2020, which, admittedly, is very strange, given the circumstances. In September 2023, Yerevan was still confident that someone would not allow Azerbaijan to do something. But the situation for Armenian interests only began to worsen. And then Pashinyan apparently realized for the first time that the international community with all its resolutions, hearings, statements and threats means nothing to the Azerbaijani side. Perhaps he even regretted his message to the separatists, so when the "elections" took place in Khankendi, he tried to avoid congratulating the "new president". There are no deaf or blind people in Yerevan, and they knew Baku's attitude to these "elections" and heard warnings about the consequences of such a step. As a creative person, Nikol found a thousand colorful explanations for why he did not congratulate Shahramyanan, but no one believed in all this. It wasn't about regretting Araik's departure or thinking about the plight of the new "president." It was about understanding that the situation was hanging by a thread. Pashinyan has already done one unacceptable stupid thing, congratulating the separatists on the "independence Day". With this message, he showed that all his recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is a hoax. Recalling the declaration of independence of Armenia in his message, he made it clear that the claims to Azerbaijani lands remain in force.

Baku drew appropriate conclusions from his message, as well as from his fateful statement for the Armenian cause, "Karabakh is Armenia, and that's it" at the Khankendi stadium and dancing on the Dzhidyr Duzy on the eve of the 44-day war. Nikol is a journalist by profession and must understand the power of the word. He remembered this truth too late. However, it did not help him that Shahramanyan was left without congratulations from Yerevan. Ten days after Pashinyan tried to justify himself to journalists, the separatist games came to an end.  

This time Nikol Pashinyan dispensed with the toxic message. In order to somehow identify himself on a "festive" date, he visited the border town of Kirantz and opened a school there. Again, it was expected that during the trip he would somehow speak out about September 2, but he did not say anything. Which, in our opinion, is quite wise. Especially considering that the President of Azerbaijan was in Kalbajar nearby, on the other side of the border, and Pashinyan tried to watch his language.

Despite the seemingly fervent support of the collective West, Armenia is at a very disadvantage. Both tactically and strategically. The tactic she chose, or rather indicated to her, of delaying time in anticipation of a miracle, does not work. Recently it became known that the Armenian side has sent another version of the text of the peace treaty to Azerbaijan. The response to the Azerbaijani proposals had to wait 70 days. Is this enough time to write an entire book, and if the Armenians held the document for so long, it turns out they worked on it carefully? Not at all. The Armenian side simply deleted everything from the text that it does not like. That's all. If Yerevan thinks that Baku will continue to play meaningless ping-pong with them, they will be very disappointed.

We did not know whether Yerevan was waiting for September to present its version of the agreement or not. But the fact that it was presented just in time for the "holiday" cannot be an accident. Apparently, the magic of September continues to influence Armenian minds and pushes them to fatal stupidities. After all, it was in September 1991 that the Armenians made a fatal mistake by declaring the "independence" of Karabakh. It was a step that put an end to their dream of Azerbaijani lands. Before that, they had already gained a foothold in Karabakh, successfully squeezed out Azerbaijanis with the support of the central authorities of the Union, managed to rewrite the history of this land and felt like its full masters. "Independence" became a fatal mistake, which eventually led to the fact that the Armenians found themselves in a broken trough.

Karabakh is lost to the Armenians forever. No one will allow Armenians to gather on Azerbaijani soil anymore, because it necessarily ends badly. Some number may be allowed to return under certain conditions, but there will be no autonomy, neither high nor low, no preferences, no self-government and the like. But all is not lost for Armenia yet. If, of course, they come to their senses there. The beginning of this September shows that this is still a long way off.

In theory, September 2 would be the most appropriate day to cover up the separatist shop in Yerevan. Last year, there were rumors that the government was going to do just that, but then Pashinyan didn't have the heart. Therefore, the separatist riffraff is again trying to raise its head, putting sticks in the wheels of the peace process and pushing the soft-spoken prime minister to stupid statements and ridiculous poses. Shushera, of course, marked the "holiday" with solemn events and speeches performed by Samvel Shahramanyan and the leadership of the church, even Garegin II himself. How can there be no church on a day like this?

Well, nothing will change for the Armenian people by marking this date. Armenians have enough dates, which are said to be thousands of years old. All of them are questionable and most of them have nothing behind them except their own fantasies. Armenians regularly celebrate some fantastic victories in the battles of a thousand years ago, far-fetched tragedies, Armenian history is already full of things that did not really happen. One more "historical homeland", one less - nothing will change. The Armenian people will continue to go nowhere, holding on to the cassock of another scoundrel who speaks in the name of Christ.

The latter is not a figure of speech at all. Pop loser Bagrat Srbazan visited the border town of Kiran on the eve of the "holiday" and broadcast there on behalf of... Jesus. The fat swindler apparently believes in God as much as Garegin, so he does not consider it shameful to promise the young residents of Kirants on behalf of Christ that the flags of Azerbaijan and Turkey waving on the other side of the border will "disappear one day."

Their politicians and windbags promised and continue to promise Armenians a lot of things, and these promises are crumbling nowadays, even before they have time to go down in history.