Today.Az » Analytics » Realistic Iran to chair GECF
06 November 2013 [14:45] - Today.Az
Iran's Mohammad-Hossein Adeli was elected on Sunday as the new
secretary general of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum for a two-year
term.
Iran proposed the establishment of a gas cartel, dubbed sometimes as
the "gas OPEC", in 2001. The country hosted conferences and meeting to
materialize the idea, which was finally achieved in 2009.
The mission of a cartel is to coordinate the policies to secure a
steady income to the member states, define and set outputs and prices,
and to secure supply of goods to the consumers. OPEC is a good example
of such a cartel.
Some gas exporting countries such as Qatar and Russia were not in
favor of establishing a gas cartel, to be used as a political tool,
therefore the idea could not be materialized. On October 21, 2009, the
gas exporting countries consented to change Iran's proposed name of "gas
cartel" to the "Gas Exporting Countries Forum" and turned the mission
of that totally deferent from what Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
wanted to be. Eventually, the forum was set up and its secretariat was
established in Qatar. Russia's Leonid Bokhanovsky was also named as the
GECF's secretary general for a two-year term. However, his term was
extended to four years.
In November 2012, the GECF ministerial meeting selected Iran to chair the forum's ministerial meeting in 2013, replacing Russia.
Logical and realistic
Although Iran is the largest holder of gas reserves in the world and
plays a strategic role in the future of the global gas market, but the
country's former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's extremist slogans were
used mainly to take advantage of natural gas as a political tool to put
pressure on Western powers. However, President Hassan Rouhani's speech
in the GECF meeting in Tehran showed the country's logical point of view
which is based on realities.
The previous administration in Iran used the term 'gas OPEC' even
after the cartel was officially renamed to the Gas Exporting Countries
Forum. In the second ministerial meeting of the GECF, which was held in
Russia on June 1, Ahmadinejad proposed the regulation of pricing methods
and market control, and stated that it was unfair that buyers of fuel
make benefit more than owners.
But, Hassan Rouhani addressed the GECF meeting and expressed the hope
that Iran would play an effective role in coordinating members and
sharing experiences. He also said that there are both common interests
and competition among the gas exporting countries. This issue shows that
Iran is well aware of realities in the gas market.
Objectives of GECF
The GECF is a multi-layered and an intergovernmental organization of
the world's leading natural gas producers comprising Algeria, Bolivia,
Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Russia,
Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Kazakhstan,
Iraq, the Netherlands and Norway have the status of Observer Members.
GECF members' gas reserves, output and consumption based on BP annual report for 2012
Consumption
|
Production (Bcm)
|
Share of total world's gas reserves
|
Reserves (Tcm)
|
Country
|
156.1
|
160.5
|
18 percent
|
33.6
|
Iran
|
416.2
|
592.3
|
17.6 percent
|
32.9
|
Russia
|
26.2
|
157
|
13.4 percent
|
25.1
|
Qatar
|
62.9
|
51.7
|
3.3 percent
|
6.1
|
UAE
|
34.9
|
32.8
|
3 percent
|
5.6
|
Venezuela
|
30.9
|
81.5
|
2.4 percent
|
4.5
|
Algeria
|
5.2*
|
43.2
|
2.8 percent
|
5.2
|
Nigeria
|
52.6
|
60.9
|
1.1 percent
|
2
|
Egypt
|
3.7*
|
18.7
|
0.2 percent
|
0.3
|
Bolivia
|
21.7
|
42.2
|
0.2 percent
|
0.4
|
Trinidad and Tobago
|
17.5*
|
29
|
0.5 percent
|
0.9
|
Oman
|
6.8*
|
12.2
|
0.8
|
1.5
|
Lybia
|
1.58*
|
6.73*
|
---
|
0.036*
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
836.4
|
1288.73
|
Total: 63.3
|
Total: 118.1
|
|
* Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's reports
The world's total proved gas reserves until the end of 2012 was 187.3
trillion cubic meters, while the production and consumption amount were
3363.9 and 3314.4 billion cubic meters respectively.
Regarding BP statistics, GECF members shares about one third of
world's total gas output, but their consumption is huge as well. For
instance, Iran's oil minister announced last week that the country is
unable to export any surplus gas until March 20, 2015. However, Russia
and Qatar enjoy huge level of surplus gas to sell.
GECF says on its official website that "The Mission and objective of
the Forum in accordance with the Statute is to support the sovereign
rights of member countries over their natural gas resources and their
abilities to independently plan and manage the sustainable, efficient
and environmentally conscious development, use and conservation of
natural gas resources for the benefit of their peoples".
Then, this mission is absolutely in contrast with Iran's past intention to control gas markets and prices.
Regarding the gas price issue, the contracts mostly are set based on
oil or oil production in 20-year or more terms. The gas markets -
despite the oil which is easily transferable by tankers to any point of
world - are mostly regional markets, because two third of gas exports in
the world are carried out via pipelines. Then setting gas prices in
various regions defers and depends on various conditions.
Only, liquid natural gas (LNG) export conditions is partly similar to
crude oil's, which can be transferred via tankers to any region,
however, according to BP report, only Qatar (with 105.4 bcm), Russia
(with 14.8 bcm) and Algeria (with 15.3 bcm) were the GECF's liquid gas
exporters in 2012.
Some 328 bcm of LNG has been exported during 2012 in the world, while 705.5 of the exported gas were carried out by pipelines.
There is no fixed price for the LNG in the global markets as well.
For instance, the prices in Pacific region are deferent from Japan's
markets.
Dalga Khatinoglu /Trend/
|