Today.Az » Analytics » Iran's economy- mismanagement or Fortune's fool?
30 November 2013 [09:15] - Today.Az
Romeo, the famed lover in William Shakespeare's masterpiece play
refers specifically to his lack of good fortune in being forced to kill
Juliet's cousin, saying "I'm Fortune's fool".
This is Romeo's judgement, others have their own judgements.
Coming to Iran's economy with poor performance, this is a disaster
that everyone sees, yet people offer various versions of why it happened
- we are talking about Iran's disastrous situation with economy.
Nothing matters why and how. Whether sanctions affected Iran's economy more, or mismanagement.
This is the tale of that girl who was narrating to her boyfriend -in
the film of Sympathy for Mr. Vengeance, directed by Chan-wook Park-
about one who had imagined being two heads on her body and one day shot
her head. Reaching to this fragment, the boy asked exited with a
special sorrow: Which head? Right or left?
No matter really, the result is known.
The current statistics indicate that Iran economy shrunk by about 6
percent, alongside inflation is at more than 35 percent in Iranian year,
ended on 21 March 2013 compared to the previous year.
Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, thanks to the above
$600 billion oil exports (about a half of the country's total oil
incomes during last 104 years) and $175 billion worth non-oil export in
his 8-year presidency, started extreme economic reforms nicknamed as the
"economic surgery," such as removing subsidies and paying cash money to
citizens in compensation, giving above $20 billion low-interest loans
for jobless people, building cheap houses for the poor, ignoring
sanctions and recognizing them as a tool for self-sufficiency.
Indeed, he did surgery, but without injecting any anesthetic drug
into the patient's veins. Extreme reform plans were carried out, while
Iran's economy was unstable- with a low GDP growth and high inflation
rate.
Ahmadinejad, had denied the effectiveness of Western sanctions from
on the onset until early 2013, but he began to highlight the sanctions
destructive role during his speeches in his late presidency term.
Iran's oil exports, which shared 20 percent of Iran's GDP until 2011,
dropped from 2.2 million barrels per day to about one million barrels
in the current the year, but his critics have their own judgment about
the current situation. Many accuse him of mismanagement.
Current situation
A day after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani explained economic
realities the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) released a new report on Nov.
27, saying Iran's GDP shrunk by 5.8 percent during last solar year.
Rouhani released a report on the first 100 days of his administration
in a live TV interview on Nov. 26, charging his predecessor Ahmadinejad
on mismanagement and non-efficiency.
When Rouhani took office in August, the country's inflation rate was
around 43 percent, while the government's debts to various sectors were
over two trillion rials (about $80 billion based on current official USD
rate; 24,829 rials).
This is the general resume of the situation, but with detailed review
over that published by CBI, the situation seems even much worse than
what Rouhani enumerated.
Economic performance based on CBI's report for last solar year
(USD rate is calculated based on 12,260 rials for each dollar for this
year):
|
GDP
(Billion rials)
|
Oil-less GDP
(billion rials)
|
Value-added in various sectors*
|
Oil
|
Agriculture
|
Industries and mines
|
Construction
|
Services
|
The figures were calculated compared to the base year prices of Iranian colander year 1376 (1997)
|
Iranian year ,ended on 21 March 2012
(Billion rials)
|
555436
|
506935
|
48501
|
74265
|
154121
|
28385
|
288.21
|
Iranian year, ended on 21 March 2013
(Billion rials)
|
522957
|
490995
|
31962
|
78943
|
135008
|
20414
|
286951
|
Changes y-to-y percent
|
- 5.8
|
-3.1
|
-34.1
|
6.3
|
-12.4
|
-28.1
|
-0.4
|
* The values are calculated based on "base year" prices of 1376
(1997) to eliminate the role of some temporary factors such as currency
rate fluctuations, inflation, etc. in the performances.
Mismanagement or sanctions?
The figures mentioned above are just a scene of Iran's economic
tragedy. Decreasing the amount of investment in the industry sector by
29 percent, declining industrial production index by 9 percent, dropping
petrochemical products and condensate exports by 33 percent and 12
percent respectively during last solar year compared to the previous
year, alongside other even worse facts indicates that Ahmadinejad's
legacy for Rouhani is just a huge amount of problems.
Rouhani began his mandate by attempting to normalize Iran's relations
with Western countries. Some restrictive measures imposed on Iran are
going to be eased.
Whether caused by sanctions or mismanagement, the country's economy
should revive as soon as possible to prevent it from falling into even
greater disasters. Nothing else matters.
* Fortune refers to goddess of luck in Roman religion (Fortuna). Fool means marionette.
Dalga Khatinoglu /Trend/
|