Today.Az » Politics » Corridor games without rules
01 August 2024 [15:40] - Today.Az
By Leyla Tarverdiyeva, Day.Az
As the geopolitical crisis deepens and conflicts in Eurasia escalate, attention to the South Caucasus and Central Asia is becoming increasingly focused. This region has never been in such demand before. It cannot be said that increased attention will contribute to solving the problems of the region. On the contrary, it can create additional ones if the countries located in the space of the "Turkic belt" do not coordinate approaches and interests in order to oppose their external interests with a united front.
Central Asia and the South Caucasus have always traditionally been in the zone of Russia's interests, and the United States has not made any attempts to violate this border. They didn't need to. At the service of the interests of the United States was the entire, as they say now, Global South, maritime trade routes, which until recently provided most of the international cargo traffic. Few people were interested in the small piece of land between the Black and Caspian Seas. In matters of international logistics, everything was captured until China entered the arena with its "Belt and Road". This project also provided for the South Caucasus in the last place, but the rapid activity launched by Azerbaijan forced us to pay attention to this particular area. He built a new railway and a major port, won the war, ending a conflict that posed a threat to international logistics, and shook up Central Asia. Baku worked while others waited for the "elders" to say. And I did not waste my strength and money in vain.
Today, it is already clear to everyone that the route from Asia to Europe through the South Caucasus is the most reliable, stable and safe. And therefore, a struggle began for control over the Middle Corridor and for the dominance of their own interests in this space. Characteristically, no one is interested in the interests of the countries of the region themselves in this "campaign". They will have to take care of protecting them themselves.
Speaking at the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien noted that Washington is considering the possibility of creating a new land corridor running from Central Asian countries to world markets through the territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia and China. O'Brien said that the countries of Central Asia are incredibly rich, but currently their only options for entering world markets lie through Russia or China. And if the United States can open a route through Armenia and Azerbaijan, then the Central Asian countries will have greater access to world markets.
Some conclusions can be drawn from these statements. It may seem to some that the American side has stood up for the Zangezur corridor. But this is unlikely. There are no signs that the United States has begun to put pressure on Yerevan in order to force it to fulfill its obligations. The United States would have done this only if it had received something from Baku. For example, agreeing to take China out of the game.
Azerbaijan is a hub on the Middle Corridor, it is absolutely impossible to bypass it, and if it leaves the Belt and Road, it will immediately change the entire configuration. By the way, this version is not at all fantastic.
Recall that Italy withdrew from the Chinese initiative last year. She was the only representative of the "Big Seven" in this project and fruitfully cooperated with China for five years. But as part of its anti-China project, the United States has cleared the European space of partnership with China. Italy was the last. In September, shortly before the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the IMEC Economic Corridor project was presented, designed to knock the Belt and Road out of the arena. In addition to the States, India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the European Union, France, Italy, and Germany signed up to it. The plans collapsed just a few days later, and today the situation in the Middle East is only getting worse. That is, there will be no IMEC.
India turned out to be the first strikebreaker - it rushed to sign a memorandum with Iran and connect to the North-South. And the other day, the Italian Prime Minister paid a visit to Beijing, although she held on for a long time without responding to the invitation.
Let's go back to our region. The American side started talking about a trade route bypassing China and Russia through Armenia not so long ago. Attempts to persuade Azerbaijan to open communications with Armenia have led to nothing. Baku was even intimidated by punishment for building communications through Iran. The same James O'Brien spoke about this last December.
The harsh reaction of the Azerbaijani side forced a change in rhetoric, because no one was going to quarrel with Baku over the Armenians. All the Americans need is to gain control of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor) in order to keep China out of it. Last year, Western officials and leaders made a series of visits to Central Asian countries. And it seems that not only for uranium. There was clearly some work being done with the leaders of Central Asia. But, apparently, something didn't work out. Which is not surprising, considering that in 2023 the trade turnover between Central Asia and China reached almost $ 90 billion. A year earlier, it was 70 billion. And recently it became known that China will build railways in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Then these roads will connect with the Kazakh ones and beautifully reach the Caspian ports. It is clear that the Chinese side is not doing this for charity.
Azerbaijan has also spent huge amounts of money creating a modern transport and logistics infrastructure and making broad plans for the future. Europe needs uranium and rare earth metals today. The countries of Central Asia are rich in both. Azerbaijan, of course, will make efforts to provide high-quality logistics to partners in Asia and Europe. But he will not allow himself to be limited in actions and geography. And why, in fact, create a new route when a reliable and proven East-West transit corridor through Georgia already exists and operates. Everything is worked out and debugged. Azerbaijan has recently completed the modernization of the Georgian section of the BTK, Kazakhstan is working on expanding its ports and railways, Turkiye is implementing relevant projects on its territory, Georgia is starting to build the deep-water port of Anaklia with the Chinese. Armenia will only be a hindrance in this well-established mechanism, because it is not capable of independent actions and decisions.
Once Azerbaijan was expected to connect Armenia to the route of the BTC oil pipeline, then the West refused to invest in the BTK railway if it bypassed Armenia, now someone needed to introduce this country into the Middle Corridor. It is necessary as a kind of chip that allows you to control processes. This is understandable. It is only unclear why Armenia itself needed this farce. Why does she need American lobbying if Azerbaijan offered her to open the Zangezur corridor four years ago and become part of the East-West route? Armenia, having listened to someone, refused, and now dreams of a route through Azerbaijan and Armenia are regularly heard from across the ocean.
Apparently, complexes are back - it is more pleasant for Yerevan to think that the States will force Baku to open the road that Armenians really need. But Azerbaijan will not take a step under pressure. Everyone knows that. And it is not yet a fact that the American side is referring specifically to the Zangezur corridor. As you know, European and American officials have repeatedly declared their full support for Pashinyan's unviable "crossroads of the world". It should also be recalled that earlier Nikol Pashinyan offered Azerbaijan three border exits for communication with Nakhchivan. All three are unsuitable for the organization of international logistics, so the proposals were rejected. But Pashinyan, of course, continues to brandish them at international meetings.
By the way, the issue of the Zangezur corridor was raised in Tehran yesterday, but from the other side. At Pashinyan's meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the latter said that "Iran considers the Zangezur road harmful to Armenia and is firm in its position."
What is so "harmful" about the Zangezur corridor for Armenia and how does this issue concern Iran in general? In short, these two questions can be answered, respectively, with "nothing" and "nothing". Nevertheless, it is Iran that is Armenia's main support in resisting the restoration of the road through Meghri, and through this project, the opening of all other communications with Azerbaijan. The issue of the Zangezur corridor is closely related to the issue of opening communications in general. In early January, in an interview with Azerbaijani TV channels, President Ilham Aliyev made it clear that manipulation of this topic is unacceptable and Azerbaijan will achieve its goal. "I advise the Armenian side not to engage in manipulation in this matter. Their proposed route from the main part of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan is completely unusable. It will be impossible to use it throughout the year, because the weather conditions and terrain there are very harsh... If the route I mentioned (the Zangezur corridor) is not opened, then we do not intend to open the border with Armenia in any other place," the head of state said.
Briefly and clearly.
Iran's motives are not difficult to understand. He is interested in the road to Nakhchivan passing through his territory and helping him become part of the Middle Corridor. The Zangezur corridor is a competitor to the Iranian transit. But our Armenian neighbors rejoice at Khamenei's words like children, not realizing what they are being deprived of. Armenians are also happy with O'Brien's statements, but less so because they do not understand what the American official meant and are afraid to make a mistake. May our neighbors forgive us, but the truth is that if America orders, 40 kilometers of rail will be laid through Megri overnight.
We also do not know for sure what Mr. O'Brien meant. But we know something else for sure: the formula "Zangezur corridor in exchange for something" will not work.
We do not claim that such a formula exists. Although...
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