The fight started in the very first week of autumn, when the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee approved a controversial -- to say the least -- report on Turkey's progress towards eventual EU entry. European parliamentarians, after silence throughout the summer, lashed out at Turkey for a slowdown in the reform pace, an absence of progress on human rights and, of course, refusal to normalize its relations with EU member Greek Cyprus.

Though the tone of criticism was a little strong, Ankara would have not bothered much if this had been all. But the Foreign Ministry went so far as to call the criticism of Dutch rapporteur Camiel Eurlings' report 'fictitious,' making a strong appeal for a 'correction.'

What irked Ankara was its call for the recognition of the alleged genocide of Armenians and, what is more, the unexpected reference to nebulous claims of genocide of Pontus Greeks and Assyrians in Anatolia at the hands of the Ottoman Turks. "It is our chief expectation that in the coming period, certain elements in this report, which expresses such unfounded, fictitious demands that we can never be expected to fulfill, will be changed," Foreign Ministry spokesman Nam?k Tan said in comments on the report.

The angry response is a sign of Turkish frustration with attempts to introduce even further conditions for the advancement of its bid to join the EU, such as the recognition of the alleged Armenian genocide, while the ties are already braced for a key challenge over Cyprus and reforms.

The commission, the EU's executive arm, quickly intervened to say that the authority to set conditions for Turkey's EU bid lies with itself, not others. But then it turned to Ankara and urged it to fulfill its obligations towards the 25-nation bloc to avert a looming crisis.

In a meeting with Ali Babacan, the state minister for economy and Turkey's chief negotiator for EU talks, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn urged Ankara to press ahead with political reforms and open its ports to ships from Greek Cyprus under a customs union protocol it signed last year before the commission releases its critical progress report on Oct. 24.

The EU has warned repeatedly, and increasingly more frequently, over the past days, that non-compliance in these two fields could hamper the accession talks. This, in turn, could spark a political crisis at a time when surveys reveal a growing disenchantment in public opinion on both sides.

But room for maneuvering for the Turkish leadership appears to be limited in both areas. Parliament is to return early from a summer recess in mid-September to pass a reform package drafted by the government, but the EU demands are unlikely to be satisfied.

At the heart of the EU dissatisfaction lies the limited progress in the area of freedom of expression. Brussels is rattled by the large number of activists, journalists, writers and others prosecuted under Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code (TCK) for expressing non-violent views, which prosecutors call 'insulting Turkishness.'

The government has so far insisted that the implementation of the article should matter, not the number of charges brought against people for expressing views by prosecutors, and requested time to see how the trials under the article, which entered into force only one-and-a-half years ago, result in before considering whether it should be amended.

But implementation has not been so bright so far. Nearly 100 people have been tried under Article 301, and 15 of them have been sentenced in the past year, according to daily Radikal.

Thus, the EU, unlikely to be convinced by Turkish assurances that time may be a remedy, is stepping up demands for a speedy revision of Article 301. Failure to do so is expected to bring tough criticism in the commission's progress report on Oct. 24.

But the government has been pushed into a corner amid escalating violence at the hands of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and any move to expand freedoms could undermine its popularity ahead of next year's parliamentary elections.

The prospects are not bright as long as a remedy for the Cyprus row is concerned, although officials on both sides say the study of alternative solutions are under consideration.

Frustrated with EU passivity to bring to life its promise of allowing direct trade with the Turkish Cypriots to ease their international isolation, the government has made it crystal clear that Turkey would not open its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus unless steps are taken to reach out to the Turkish Cypriots.

Turkish feelings are deep and sensitive on the Cyprus issue, with many Turks seeing it as a matter of 'betrayal.' The EU has failed to appreciate a major policy change on the part of Turkey, as a result of which Ankara encouraged the Turkish Cypriots to support a U.N. plan to reunite the island in 2004, and, since then it has bowed to almost all the Greek Cypriot demands to force Turkey to make concessions on the Cyprus issue so that its EU bid could advance.

Opening the ports and airports to the Greek Cypriots without any visible EU step to ease the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots is most likely to be seen in the public as a foreign policy defeat and a failure on the part of the government.

Disappointment over Cyprus is a major reason behind a growing public estrangement towards the EU in Turkey.

A Transatlantic Trends poll conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, released this week, revealed that Turks were becoming increasingly cooler towards the EU and the United States while warming to Iran.

While a majority of Turks continues to see EU membership as a good thing, the percentage of Turks who see Turkey's membership as a good thing has fallen each year from 73 percent in 2004 to 54 percent in 2006, while the percentage of Turks who see Turkey's membership as a bad thing has increased from 9 percent to 22 percent over the same period.

The same negative trend is visible in the EU as well. The survey revealed that those who see Turkey's membership as a good thing have fallen each year from 30 percent in 2004 to 21 percent in 2006, and those who see Turkey's membership as a bad thing have grown from 20 percent in 2004 to 32 percent in 2006.

The poll findings explain both why it is difficult for decision-makers to take a step forward and how destructive the outcome could be if the deadlock is not overcome.

EU leaders have vowed to review Turkey's progress on the ports issue in late 2006 with a view to suspending talks in the event of non-compliance, but with both the Turkish and the European public increasingly losing appetite for Turkish-EU integration, many observers agree that it would be highly difficult to put the relations back on track after such a 'train crash.'

In other words, leaders in Turkey and Europe may find it hard to resist public opposition and resume the Turkey-EU accession talks after they are suspended over Cyprus.

Officials are working on alternative solutions that could avert or delay the crisis, with possible formulas ranging from referring the matter to the European Court of Justice to granting partial access to Turkish ports and airports for Greek Cypriot ships and planes.

In Brussels, Babacan made it clear that Ankara's 'red line' was that it would not open its ports and airports unilaterally to traffic from Greek Cyprus but added that Turkey was ready to consider alternative options. "If there are any alternative ways to find an interim solution, a partial solution or a postponement of the serious problem so that we can handle the situation step by step, we are still ready to discuss any possible solution," Babacan said in an interview with Reuters.

/Turkish Daily News/