The anticipated level of inflation by Uzbekistan's residents significantly decreased in January, according to a study by the Central Bank, Azernews reports, citing Kun.uz news agency.
Participants in the latest survey, which focused on price growth forecasts for the next 12 months, predicted an average figure of 13.1%, half a percent lower than in December. The median indicator fell by 0.2 percentage points to 10.8%.
The highest estimates were once again recorded in Tashkent, although they notably decreased compared to the previous month (14.9%). Samarkand region (14.7%) and Bukhara region (14.4%) also featured in the top three, while the lowest forecasts were in Andijan (10.4%) and Karakalpakstan (11.2%).
Within industries, the most optimistic estimates came from trade (11%), household services (11.4%), and catering (11.5%). On the other hand, pensioners (15.2%), production workers (15.1%), and those in the tourism industry (14.8%) projected higher rates.
The main factor in predicting inflation remains currency exchange rate fluctuations, with 55% of respondents indicating this as a concern. This is followed by rising energy prices (49%), increased utility tariffs (39%), and higher wages and benefits (32%).
A more pronounced decline in inflation forecasts was seen among entrepreneurs, who recorded a year-beginning low since the start of 2023. The average level decreased by a percentage point to 12.7%, with the median slightly lower at 10.6%.
The highest forecasts, as in the previous month, were given in Samarkand (17.1%), followed by the Tashkent region (14.7%), and the capital (13.6%). The lowest price increases are expected in Bukhara (10.3%), Khorezm (10.6%), Kashkadarya (11.1%), and Karakalpakstan (11.3%).
By sector, the highest expectations were noted in culture (15.9%), IT (13.8%), and industry (13.3%). The lowest rates were foreseen by craftsmen (11.1%), restaurateurs, and medical professionals (12.3%).
Similar to citizens, entrepreneurs frequently cited currency dynamics (59%), fuel prices (43%), and utility costs (35%) as underlying reasons.
