"Economic growth" in Armenia turns out to be cheap illusion

A meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council and a session of the Eurasian Economic Forum were held in Yerevan on Tuesday. Armenia, which has announced its "European choice", as we can see, is still trying to keep its skinny fifth point on two stools.

Recently, at the World Armenian Summit, Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia has no plans to reduce trade turnover or sever economic ties with Russia and the EAEU. At the same time, he tried to convince the diaspora that Yerevan was not even going to cancel the divorce from Moscow, but was simply diversifying its economy. What's the big deal? Armenia is faithful to the "European choice" and is working to increase trade turnover with the EU and the United States, Pashinyan said. At the same time, he forgot to add that the indicators of turnover with Europe and the United States are outrageously incomparable with the indicators of Armenian trade with Russia. We will not talk about the EAEU as a whole, because the fantastic growth, which was also discussed at the forum in Yerevan, consists mainly of incredible figures forming on the Armenian-Russian track.

In an interview with Armenian media on the eve of the forum in Yerevan, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said that Eurasian integration has helped Armenia to increase trade turnover. According to him, since joining the EAEU, Armenia's trade turnover with the countries of the Union has increased 6 times, and exports - 15 times. The Russian minister did not fail to clarify that this happened mainly due to the development of relations with Russia. He also said that money transfers from the Russian Federation account for 5 percent of Armenia's GDP, and about 60 large Russian business projects are being implemented in the country, including in the field of IT and high technologies, mining, manufacturing, transport and so on.

As you know, Russian business and Russian investments hold the primacy in the most important sectors that at least bring income to Armenia. Including in the production of aluminum foil for export. What the Russian minister said sounded like a message for Yerevan not to try to fly very high and not be inspired by every white-toothed smile from the West.

In principle, there is nothing new in these figures. Armenia's trade turnover with the EAEU is really formed due to turnover with Russia. Expected. that by the end of 2024, the trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation will reach the level of $ 14-16 billion. Last year, this figure was 7.4 billion, which, in turn, is 55 percent more than in 2022. For comparison, the trade turnover with another fairly strong member of the EAEU, Kazakhstan, was at the level of $ 100 million for Armenians last year. Do you feel the difference?

Moreover, it is noteworthy that the worse the relations between Moscow and Yerevan seem from the outside, the larger the trade turnover. It is no secret that Armenia's GDP is growing due to the re-export of sanctioned goods, but not only Moscow and Yerevan, but also Europe, are apparently interested in these transactions. Therefore, they turn a blind eye to the inadequate growth of the Armenian economy. Including the fact that these miracles began to happen in the year of the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

As of April this year, the largest foreign trade partners of Armenia were Russia (2.2 times growth), the UAE (almost 7 times growth) and China (84.5 percent growth). The top five also included the EU

countries (a decline of 19 percent) and Iran (a decline of 15.7 percent). As you can see, with the exception of Russia, other EAEU countries are not included in this list.

The list of what is imported and what is exported from Armenia is noteworthy. Armenia imports: precious stones and metals (and products made from them); machinery, equipment and mechanisms; materials of the mining industry; land, air and water vehicles; textiles (and products made from it); chemical industry products; base metals (and products made from them); finished products of the food industry. Armenia exports: precious stones and metals (as well as products made from them); machinery, equipment and machinery; mining materials; finished products of the food industry; textiles (and products made from them); base metals (and products made from them); appliances and apparatuses; products of vegetable origin.

Looking at these lists, it is impossible to get rid of the idea that Armenia imports and exports the same thing in many cases.

In early June, the German DW conducted an investigation and published its results. As you know, since January of this year, in accordance with the 12th package of EU sanctions, a complete ban on direct imports from Russia to the European Union of non-industrial natural and synthetic diamonds and diamond jewelry has begun to operate. According to DW, gold is exported by Armenia under the guise of Armenian, although this metal has never been mined in the country in such volumes. In 2023, according to official statistics, Armenia exported $1.8 billion worth of gold and 589 million worth of diamonds. Since the beginning of 2024, Armenia has already exported 2.5 billion worth of gold and almost 200 million worth of diamonds. Processing of precious raw materials increased by 31 percent. How could this be in a country where the industry has practically died? It is reported that Armenia is re-exporting Russian gold and diamonds to Dubai and Hong Kong, where an abnormal increase in imports from Armenia has been noted since last year.

Armenia is a transshipment point not only for the re-export of Russian products, but also for the re-export of European goods to Russia. According to Armenian media, Armenia has been supplying mobile phones, household appliances and cars of European, American and other production to the Russian Federation since 2022. Needless to say, Armenia itself does not produce these products.

In short, the war in Ukraine has opened up a real Klondike for Armenia, as they used to say, of unearned income. The country is doing practically nothing, real growth is at zero, but it boldly enters 5.6 percent of GDP growth in 2025 into its state budget.

Meanwhile, the first alarm bells are already ringing on that very Russian-Armenian track. The level of transfers from Russia is decreasing. In the five months of last year, they amounted to $ 2.48 billion, and in the same period of 2024 - 2.088 billion, that is, 392 million less. The growth of transfers from the United States and the United Arab Emirates compared to Russian transfers is a penny and does not make the weather. Armenian economists are sounding the alarm, foreshadowing problems for the country's economy due to a drop in transfers from Russia. Problems have arisen and are developing incrementally. Armenia has banned the Mir map - the flow of Russian tourists has fallen, and in parallel there is an outflow of relocators, which has brought down the housing market in Armenia. The experts who triumphed over the "Armenian economic miracle" a year ago are depressed today and have to admit that all the so-called successes of the Armenian economy were solely related to the war in Ukraine. That is, Armenia has made capital out of the misfortune of the Ukrainian people. Due to relocations, transfers and re-exports. All three positions have nothing to do with the real economy of Armenia proper. Therefore, economists recognize that a decrease in the volume of money transfers to Armenia can significantly affect the state of the country's economy. This will especially affect sectors such as trade, construction and services. In the previous two years, double-digit growth was recorded in the service sector, and in May of this year it was only 2.8 percent. The decline in prices in the rental market by 50 percent does not bode well either. Russian relocators are leaving, and expensive apartments with expensive repairs, bought by Armenians who hurried to take advantage of the situation, remain around the necks of the latter with an unaffordable load of huge loans. They planned to repay these loans due to high rent from Russians. And it turned out...

All this cannot be called a surprise. In a country where growth is driven by transfers, re-exports and relocations, the economy cannot stay afloat for long. Sooner or later, the carnival ends and the gray days begin.