Georgia’s economists share forecast for country’s GDP growth

By Trend

Georgia’s annual GDP growth rate in 2022 will reach 2.1 percent, the ISET Policy Institute (ISET-PI), Georgia’s independent economic policy think-tank, told Trend.

According to the source, the forecast for Georgia’s GDP growth is envisaged at 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2022, while in the second quarter of the current year the economy is expected to contract by 3.8 percent.

As ISET-PI explains, the negative impact of the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, and the subsequent economic sanctions imposed on Russia, on the whole region is unavoidable, and Georgia can already see the consequences of it.

In light of Georgia’s plans for strategic partnership and eventual membership in the EU, the country should do its best to avoid the impact, and continue signaling its commitment to international law and order and future membership in the EU, the ISET-PI said.

The institute noted that their prediction is very close to the forecast from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which estimated Georgia’s economic growth at 2 percent in 2022.

Meanwhile, other Georgia’s economists also shared their predictions for the country’s estimated economic growth. For example, Galt & Taggart investment bank’s initial GDP growth forecast for Georgia is projected at 3 percent, while the Renaissance Capital investment bank has estimated Georgia’s GDP growth in 2022 at 2-3 percent.

Meanwhile, TBC Capital has shared two possible cases for Georgia’s GDP growth, which imply either growth of 3.5 to 4 percent (positive scenario), or -1.5 to 0.5 percent (negative scenario).

At the same time, the Policy and Management Consulting Group has assessed the forecast for Georgia’s economic growth at 4.9 percent, based on a survey conducted among Georgian economists.