Possible results of P5+1-Iran nuclear talks

/By AzerNews - Sara Rajabova/

Though the world powers and Iran have reached a framework accord on Tehran’s decade-old nuclear dispute, experts and analysts are skeptical on the success of the nuclear negotiations. They don’t believe that the P5+1 and Iran could achieve a final nuclear deal by the July 1 deadline.

Some are strongly convinced that even if a final nuclear deal is achieved, it will not prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and that Tehran will never give up on the idea of becoming a nuclear power.

Moreover, the possible nuclear deal could lead to the growing influence of the Islamic Republic in the region, and even in the world. Some powers haven’t accepted the idea that Iran could became a growing influence, as it could be potentially a growing threat to some countries.

The international community is now looking forward to a comprehensive deal that will disappear all concerns over Iran’s nuclear energy program. However, the sides are still unable to coordinate their position and iron out all the differences which separate them.

Such a situation has led experts to consider both the positive and negative results of this ongoing nuclear negotiation between P5+1 and Iran.

Mohammad Reza Sabzalipour, the president of Iran World Trade Center told AzerNews that the results of the negotiations will receive different feedback from the world and Iran.

He noted that if a comprehensive long-term agreement is achieved the Iranian society will certainly take great benefits from this, as the value of the national currency, rial against foreign currencies, including the dollar and the euro will unprecedentedly rise, stock exchange index will considerably grow, investments in the country will be increased and international relations will be improved.

However, Sabzalipour didn’t rule out the negative consequences of the nuclear talks, such as failure or extension of the nuclear negotiations. He warned that if the talks were to fail, the situation will certainly add to Iran's economic distress.

“If it happens, all of the positive reflections will be negative - the dollar value will rise against the rial, stock index will decline, international relations will be even more limited than today and as a result investments will be reduced,” he said.

Sabzalipour noted that if the sides were to fail to achieve a nuclear deal, then the West’s hostility and its economic war against Iran will intensify and new prohibitions could enforce Hassan Rouhani's government to cope with more problems.

The Islamic Republic has been suffering from the effects of long-lasting international sanctions imposed on the country over its disputed nuclear program as to block its progress toward reaching nuclear potency.

The sanctions have paralyzed Iran's economy and hindered the flow of huge wealth that the country could obtain from its oil and gas exports. The lifting of financial and economic sanctions will enable the country to get back its frozen assets, which are estimated to be worth $100 billion, according to reports.

Tehran and Washington not to let negotiations break down

Though Washington and Tehran have a number of disagreements between them, they don’t want negotiations to fail either, as it is in the interests of neither the Iranian nor U.S. government.

For U.S. President Barack Obama, a successful nuclear deal would be a main foreign policy achievement and potentially the legacy of his presidency. As he has been criticized for his foreign policy tactics both at home and abroad, Obama wants to end his tenure on a win.

As for Iranian Rouhani, he has vowed to put an end to the economic difficulties and isolation of his country. A failure of the talks could reduce people's confidence toward the government and threaten political stability, as Iranian people are waiting with great hope to get rid of their sufferings.

Therefore, both are making every effort to successfully finalize the nuclear negotiations.

“The important issue is that both Tehran and Washington prefer to extend the first agreement than see negotiations breakdown. For Americans, the first agreement caused a partial stopping of Iran nuclear program without canceling any main prohibition .Therefore, successful negotiations would bring prestige to Obama,” Sabzalipour said.

He noted that should the negotiation fail it will not only show Obama’s weakness but it will also lessen the reputation of the Democratic Party against that of the Republicans, at a time when the U.S. is getting ready to elect its next president.

“Therefore, a comprehensive agreement is the only option left for Obama,” Sabzalipour said.

John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State called on skeptical Republicans and Democrats to give him another two and a half months to secure a final nuclear deal with Iran, Reuters reported.

Also, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran foreign minister said although writing the final nuclear agreement is difficult, it is possible nonetheless.

Sabzalipour said for Iranian government, the nuclear agreement will not only remove a double-edged sword but also will return confidence of the people and community by emitting economic problems and turmoil.

Final nuclear deal don’t resolve Iran’s problems overnight

However, the removal of sanctions and restrictions on Iran is not the end of all problems of the country and the comprehensive deal would bring more responsibility for the government.

“Achieving a comprehensive long term agreement will cause the people to rejoice throughout Iran as an end to the sanctions will bring hopes. They think that termination of the sanctions will end all of Iran's problems. But there are many obstacles still to be overcome,” Sabzalipour said noting that in any case, this is a good way to reintroduce Iran to the world.

He, however, considered that this situation will increase people’s expectation more than ever, adding that the people will want solutions to all the economic problems and disorders of the last decade overnight.

The prohibitions and limitations against the country will not be removed overnight and it will take many years to do so, noted Sabzalipour.

The removal of sanctions is one of main issues of disagreement between the world powers and Iran. If the P5+1 countries, mainly the U.S. insists on removing the sanctions after Iran abides by the nuclear deal, while Iran wants all sanctions to be lifted immediately after the deal will be sign.

“Obama has control on 20 percent of the prohibitions, but part of the prohibitions in the U.S. will need to be sanctioned by Congress and the House of Representatives.

Considering the fact that Republicans' hold the majority in Congress, restrictions will not be simply removed,” Sabzalipour said.

The expert emphasized that should sanctions on oil export be removed and not banking restrictions then no problems will be remedied.

This will lead to much anger and contention as people will understand this as a failure of their respective government Sabzalipour explained.