U.S. political scientists argue that all politics are ultimately local. Everything, including formal declarations by senior officials, only serve as self-advertising to a certain extent. The end of the 20th century has generated an unprecedented demand for professional advertising services and image-makers.
However, self-advertising has real potential. You can, of course, suggest a presidential candidate, such as U.S. President Barack Obama, not to ask for his favorite mustard in a cafeteria and to use the one that is available, so as not to seem a snob in the eyes of potential voters. But what if PR experts face problems that are more serious than choosing a mustard?
In short, Armenian diplomats and especially PR managers are not very pleased today. They have been assigned tasks that are nearly impossible – persuading their own citizens that the country’s economic, diplomatic and military situation is evolving in line with Armenia’s interests.
Fortunately, the U.S. military and industrial complex launched the Internet, which prevents the informational space from being isolated any longer. Armenian citizens have access not only to the statements of their own politicians, but also to those of Azerbaijan and Turkey. You can draw only one conclusion from these statements – Armenia will have to leave the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh at least in the first stage.
The chances of receiving political dividends from the issue of turning these lands into a bargaining chip are zero. Armenia faces increasing pressure. Azerbaijan is not going to tolerate the annexation of its territory, constantly saying that if a peaceful path fails, military intervention cannot be excluded. This makes Armenian citizens ask tough questions: "What will happen to us tomorrow? We will have to fight again?"
The main point here is the behavior of Armenian authorities who should be aware of the real state of affairs. They proudly reject all the proposals, implying that they will wait until they are offered something more acceptable, namely, the legalization of Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan in the form of the annexation of Karabakh and surrounding areas. They even insist on handing over territories now under the control of the legitimate Azerbaijani authorities.
How far these hopes have a chance of justifying themselves is a matter of history, rather than analysis. It is enough to keep track of the changes in the OSCE Minsk Group proposals to understand in whose favor the balance of powers in the region is changing. As the Armenian diplomacy is unable to make the international community to indulge its whims, it simply takes offense at London who thinks about its "oil" interests before the so-called "historical rights" of the Armenian people. It takes offense at Washington, for which the "Incirlik” base is more valuable than the passions of World War One. Armenia takes offense at Paris and Moscow, too... In short, Armenia takes offense at the entire international community, hoping that the treaties signed during the WWI can be revived, so it can grab some part of Turkey’s territory.
But the situation in Karabakh is totally different. Armenia needs to understand the time-frame in Armenia’s delays to respond to the updated Madrid principles is going to expire. Azerbaijan’s patience will run out sooner or later. After all, it is hard to keep a "frozen conflict" near oil fields and pipelines. This is like something between a ticking time-bomb and shagreen leather.
But Armenian authorities show no signs of willingness to adopt a decision that will enable the country to avoid national disaster.
Nurani/Day.Az/