Fitch forecasts GDP growth in Azerbaijan

Trend:

Fitch Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 4.9 percent in 2021 in Azerbaijan, following last year's 4.3 percent contraction, driven by recovery in the non-oil sector and supported by the vaccination rollout, currently 97 doses per hundred people, Trend reports with reference to Fitch.

“We project GDP growth slows to 2.9 percent in 2022 and 2.3 percent in 2023 reflecting base effects next year and stagnating energy production (with a steady fall in oil production from aging fields almost compensated by growth in the gas sector),” said the rating agency.

Fitch estimates that inflation in Azerbaijan rose to 8.5 percent in September, from 4.3 percent in April, with pressure from food, transport, and administered prices, and it forecasts a further 50bp interest rate rise to 7.5 percent and for year-end inflation to remain elevated at 7.6 percent.

“We project inflation moderates to 4.3 percent by end-2022, just above the 4 percent central target band, as temporary pressures including from supply chain disruptions fade,” reads the report.