Secret of success: Azerbaijan's growing economy amid global recession

At the same time, the largest decline is observed in countries such as Germany and Italy with relatively large manufacturing sectors and greater dependence on energy imports from Russia. In the UK, GDP growth forecast for 2022 has decreased by one percentage point: consumption is forecast to be lower than expected as inflation lowers real disposable income and tighter financial conditions are expected to negatively affect investments.

The forecast for the US was downgraded as early as in January, mainly due to the failure of the Build Back Better fiscal policy package and continued supply chain disruptions. The additional decline by 0.3 percentage point projected for 2022 in the current round reflects a faster withdrawal of monetary support than in the previous forecast. The forecast for Canada was lowered by 0.2 percentage points.

A brief overview of some developed countries of the world gives grounds to assert that the economic downturn is associated not only with global trends, since sometimes the wrong economic policy along with the global crisis can further aggravate the situation within the country, and a balanced economic approach, on the contrary, mitigate the negative impact external factors.

In this regard, Azerbaijan is a prime example. While the entire global economy suffered only from the COVID-19 pandemic, Azerbaijan also experienced the 2020 second Karabakh war, and successfully addressed these challenges.

Over six months of this year, the Azerbaijani economy grew by 6.2 percent, non-oil economy - by 9.6 percent, total industrial production in industry - by 2.1 percent, and non-oil industry - by 11.5 percent. Incomes of the Azerbaijani population increased by nearly 20 percent. The reforms carried out in the economic sphere allowed to collect two billion manat ($1.18 billion) in the tax sphere in excess of the forecast over six months.

As President Ilham Aliyev said at a meeting dedicated to the results of six months of this year, the work done in this period in the economic sphere, of course, is the result of the carried out reforms, and these results and figures show that all the plans outlined until the end of the year will be implemented.

Moreover, Azerbaijan is rebuilding its territories, which were turned into ruins during Armenian occupation, without external assistance.

"We are doing everything at our own expense," President Ilham Aliyev said. "We are building cities and villages, we are constructing buildings and will do so much more."

In parallel with the above, social issues are also being resolved in the country. In particular, martyr families and veterans are constantly surrounded with attention and care of the state. After the second Karabakh war, the state provided apartments to many martyr families and disabled veterans. Last year, 3,000 apartments and private houses were provided, and this year - 1,500 apartments and houses.

In total, 12,500 apartments were provided to the families of martyrs and the disabled veterans of the first and second Karabakh wars.

Economic expert Aslan Azimzade commenting on the issue said that against the backdrop of a downturn in the global economy, the growth of Azerbaijan's macroeconomic indicators suggests that the country has adapted, and established a strong economic immune system against any economic crisis which may arise in the future.

“At present, global economy is experiencing serious stagnation. We are seeing a decline in macroeconomic indicators in a number of countries. According to current indicators, consumer inflation in the US is nine percent, and industrial inflation is 25 percent,” Azimzade noted. “At the same time, consumer inflation in Europe in June amounted to 8.6 percent, which is a very important indicator. In this case, we see that the increase in interest rates by the central banks of European countries and the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) doesn’t have a serious impact on the balancing of the economy.”

“Thus, raising the interest rate in the above countries has increased inflation rather than reduced it because the structural crisis in the world economy today is based on non-monetary factors. In this case, it’s impossible to regulate the economy by monetary policy. For this reason, countries are making serious changes in their economic policies and regulating this problem with real and effective methods," he said.

According to Azimzade, in this autumn the world economy may face more serious inflation.

"The reason is that this crisis is most evident in the food and energy sectors. The existing inflation in Azerbaijan is not connected with the money supply, but with external factors, that is, with imports. Thus, in the conditions of economic stagnation in the world, the rise in the cost of products imported to Azerbaijan creates import inflation in the country and this is the main reason,” he explained.

“At the same time, the progressive model of economic management used in Azerbaijan is one of the main directions that characterize the stability of the country's economy. Attracting foreign direct investments as part of the reconstruction and restoration work being carried out in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh can bring high economic dividends to our country,” he pointed out. “In particular, the transfer of high technologies as part of these investments will create an opportunity to increase labor productivity in various sectors of the economy."

Thus, despite global challenges, Azerbaijan is not only ensuring sustainable economic growth, but also carrying out huge work and fulfilling all the set tasks. This was made possible as a result of adjustments, as well as reforms, transparency and accountability.