Chance is more for Erdogan to win the possible second round elections - expert

Turkiye, which has celebrated 100th anniversary of the republic and is a benchmark in democratic elections, ended both the presidential and parliamentary elections with great struggle and excitement. However, since the final results of the elections are not completely clear, this cannot be considered the last...

Despite all this, the democratic and transparent presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkiye not only attracted the interest of millions with their dynamics, but also ensured participation of millions of Turkish electors in the voting. Thus, a total of 54.9 million people out of 60.7 million voters participated in the election, of which 30.7 million were female and 29.9 million were male.

Besides, the frustrations of some local and foreign anti-Turkish circles caused by the active participation and the free expression of the national will of the Turkish people in the elections was of another interesting moment. The useless rumors and gossips about the AKP and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan which had been made up pre-election period confirmed baseless once again. The high mood observed by Turkiye's citizens participating in the election is a clear manifestation of the trust in the Turkish government and its leader.

According to the initial results, in the Parliament election, the People's Alliance of which AKP is a member hardly precedes. As for the presidential election, since none of the candidates can pass the threshold, the country heads for a runoff. Given that the People's Alliance won the Parliament election and Erdogan's leadership capability, many experts have no suspicion that he will win the election in the second round. In a comment on the issue for Azernews, Turkish political analyst Gogtugh Chal?shkan said he is more optimistic about Erdogan's victory in the next round.

“Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more likely to win in the second round because his vote rate is 49.4 percent, while Kemal Kilicdaroglu's vote came around 44 -45 percent. In other words, in order to win, Kemal Kilicdaroglu needs to get 5.2 percent of the votes from Sinan Ogan, which is a very difficult possibility. That's why President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems more likely to win in the second round," Chalishkan said.

The expert also pointed that since the majority in the parliament will be of AKP members it will change the results of the second round elections in favor of Erdogan to some extent. However, on the other hand Goktugh Chalishkan added that taking into account that the People’s Alliance is the majority in the Parliament, citizens can change mind to vote Kemal Kilicdaroglu in order to ensure the balance.

However true to his optimism, the Turkish expert once again confirmed that Erdogan's chance is big in the election: "In any case, when evaluating the current picture, I still see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan being close to victory,” he opined.

In addition, another Turkish analyst commented on the future of Turkey's economy if Kemal K?l?cdaro?lu, who represents the main opposition, is elected: "In any scenario in which Kemal Kilicdaroglu's victory the country may face a political and economic crisis.

Speaking to Azernews, Turkish political analyst Erkan Gul said that even the people who voted for Kemal Kilicdaroglu would vote for Erdogan given the above situation of the economy.

The Turkish political analyst, and a member of MUSIAD also noted that Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s victory is out of the question.

“It is not a real scenario that Kemal Kilicdaroglu will win in the second round. At the moment, the society has accepted that the second election will be in a formal atmosphere. The consolidation and overall results of both the People's Alliance and the Nation's Alliance are almost clear. Even when we collect the Labor Alliance with which the Nation Alliance cooperates, they cannot reach an outright majority,” Gul said.

He noted that the Nation’s Alliance actually was the reinforced parliamentary system, which completely trashed. Therefore, the elements that bring the parties within the Nation Alliance together are completely distant from each other.

“The fact that the legislature and the executive are in different hands brings about the emergence of very fundamental crises. It could be either economic or political crises. I believe, and I know that the nation will not allow it either. The public opinion also proves it. The structure of the Nation Alliance is very different from each other. Even if we say that the Nation Alliance won the election with Kemal K?l?cdaroglu, its fractions in the parliament are also very disconnected from each other.

As regards Kilicdaroglu, the expert emphasized that it seems impossible for him to fulfill many of the economic commitments that he had promised to the citizens. Therefore, yesterday's table actually shows us the following: In the second round, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will easily win along with parliamentary elections.” Erkan Gül concluded.