Azerbaijan, Armenia at dawn of new era: Will peace treaty be signed?

Many countries have played a mediating role in the long-standing Garabagh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At times, these mediator states have adopted a neutral policy, while in other instances, they have taken a pro-Armenian stance, exacerbating the conflict.

However, times are changing. Events over the past four years, such as the 44-day Patriotic War, local anti-terror operations carried out by the Azerbaijani Army in Garabagh, the meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers in Almaty, and the return of four villages by Armenia to Azerbaijan, indicate that a peace treaty in the region is inevitable.

The normalisation of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations, which once seemed impossible to many, is now on the agenda of both countries. Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, talked about the signing of a peace treaty and its inevitability during his visit to Georgia yesterday. During his visit, Bayramov discussed border issues with his Georgian counterpart, Ilia Darchiashvili, suggesting positive steps in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations.

It is also important to note that next month, a commission will hold its next meeting to determine the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia. During this meeting, the delimitation and demarcation of new areas will take place, as announced by Bayramov yesterday.

Currently, the main obstacle to peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the territorial claim against Azerbaijan enshrined in the Armenian Constitution. This means that an agreement on border determination and the opening of transportation and communication lines between the two countries are expected. Bayramov's statements have also been echoed by the Armenian side. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, during a joint press conference in Tallinn with his Estonian counterpart, stated that "Yerevan is ready to finalise and sign the peace agreement with Azerbaijan within a month".

But what is the main reason for Armenia, which has pursued a provocative policy for many years, now showing such determination to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan?

It is worth recalling that until the Second Garabagh War and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the West largely ignored the events in the South Caucasus and Armenian terrorism in the region. This was due to the West's Christian bias and the belief that weakening Russia was impossible. Consequently, pro-Armenian policies were pursued in the West, led by the US and France.

Now, the power dynamics in the South Caucasus are changing. Western forces believe it is now more feasible to pressure Russia out of the South Caucasus, leveraging the Kyiv-Moscow conflict. The US, in particular, has a clear stance on signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Washington has brought Armenia under its influence and is planning to remove Russian forces from Armenia, especially from Gyumri, and eventually from the entire South Caucasus.

It is evident that the incompetence of French policy has not gone unnoticed by US officials. Macron's administration openly promotes war in the region and continues to arm Armenia, which is counterproductive to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the broader Western goal of putting pressure on Russia in the South Caucasus.

Recognising the failure of the French approach, the US is proceeding cautiously in its relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Washington does not want to be seen as a provocateur and an obstacle to peace, as France has been. The recent visits of US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, James O'Brien, to Yerevan and then Baku reflect this cautious approach.

The former American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, James Warlick, also criticised France in an interview with Armenian media, reflecting the US's anti-French sentiments.

This indicates that Washington supports the signing of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, even at the cost of sidelining Paris.

Clearly, the US's strategy regarding Russia compels it to tread carefully with Azerbaijan. Baku's position is well known: stability and sustainable development in the region are Azerbaijan's main goals. The current focus is on Armenia retracting its territorial claims against Azerbaijan, signing the peace treaty, and continuing with new projects, infrastructure, and reconstruction in the region. However, Baku justifiably demands concrete and fundamental changes and guarantees to prevent the resurgence of war in the future.