Imbalance in Armenia-NATO relations makes it tool of West rather than ally

By Fatime Letifova

Armenia's recent move to align with Western countries and the US instead of its long-time ally Russia has significantly affected Russia-Armenia relations. According to experts' views, this shift could notably alter the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus and the foreign policies of both countries in the near future.

It should be recalled that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yerevan had close ties with Moscow. It was one of Armenia's most important military and economic allies. Relying on this cooperation, Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories and displaced nearly 1 million Azerbaijanis over 30 years, devastating historical and cultural monuments and fertile lands in Azerbaijan's Garabagh region.

However, in 2020, Azerbaijan's counteroffensive against Armenian provocations signalled the potential collapse of Armenia's fortification along the grey zone. The liberation of Garabagh from Armenian occupation in 44 days proved that official Yerevan was powerless against Azerbaijan without a protector.

Subsequently, Russia's attempt to balance its relations with Azerbaijan caused Armenia's concern and to change its political vectors. Official Yerevan, under the pretext of strengthening its economic ties with the West, began seeking supporters other than Russia. The importance the West places on democratic values and human rights became more appealing to some groups in Armenia. The Armenian lobby in Europe took advantage of this opportunity and reinforced Yerevan's policy of rapprochement with the West.

Armenia's closer ties with the West led to a decrease in the military support it received from Russia, raising concerns about Armenia's security. The strained relations between Armenia and Russia in the South Caucasus suited the interests of the US, which aims to reduce Russia's influence in the region. The intensified military activities and training between Armenia and the US are indicative of this. Armenia's desire to end its strategic alliance with Russia and seek new allies and strategic partners could result in the US flag flying in the South Caucasus, the worst enemy of Russia.

It should be noted that from July 15-24, "Eagle Partner" military exercises were held in Armenia with the participation of US and Armenian soldiers. This exercise, which began in September 2023, is in its second season this year. It is clear that this US-Armenia political unity aims to showcase Washington's physical presence in the region. Through these exercises, the US demonstrates its presence in the South Caucasus to Russia and Iran.

Despite Russia maintaining its composure for a while, it began voicing objections to Armenia's significant shift towards the West. This led to tensions between pro-Russian and pro-Western groups within Armenia's internal politics. The unrest within Armenia a few months ago, labelled as a religious uprising to seize power, was a direct protest against Russia's diminishing influence over Armenia.

However, Armenia's strengthened relations with the West undeniably positively impact Yerevan's relations with Turkiye. Especially considering Turkiye's NATO membership, Pashinyan's administration is motivated to normalise and continue developing relations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an. This is evidenced by Armenia informing Turkiye before Iran about recognising Palestine as a state.

Russia understandably sees Armenia's pivot to the West as a threat to its sphere of influence. Therefore, it strongly condemns Armenia's participation in events involving Europe and the US and was troubled by Yerevan's presence at the recent NATO summit. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin expressed regret over Yerevan's participation in the NATO summit in Washington. He even stated that by deepening cooperation with NATO, Yerevan risks seriously destabilising the South Caucasus and harming its security.

How accurate is this?

The South Caucasus is already a complex and attention-grabbing region due to its geopolitical position. Countries like Russia and Iran have long pursued policies of expansion in the neighbouring territories, including those of Azerbaijan. Up until five years ago, Armenia's provocations exacerbated the situation in the region. Azerbaijan's liberation of its territories, protests in Iran a few years ago, and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought some calm to the region.

However, NATO's special cooperation with a regional state will likely result in NATO strengthening its presence in the South Caucasus. Given Azerbaijan's balanced policy towards NATO, it is clear that Baku will not disrupt regional stability in terms of its relations with the West and Russia.

But can Armenia, in search of a new ally, replicate this balanced policy?

Currently, Armenia's alignment with both the EU and the US significantly impacts its relations with Russia. Armenia will need to exercise careful diplomacy to maintain balance and protect its national interests during this process. It is a stark contrast to the country's political past today; Armenia, which once joined the CSTO and was able to withstand despite its poor economy in the South Caucasus with the Kremlin's support, today ignores the fate of neighbouring Georgia in the background of its extreme integration with the West. The failure of geopolitics to conform to geostrategic realities and Armenia's aggressive Westernisation strategy not only worries Moscow but also puts the future of the South Caucasus and even Yerevan at risk. The political imbalance makes Yerevan not an ally of the West, but rather a tool in the hands of the Western powers.