Kazakhstan's report confirmed Baku's correctness. What will Moscow say now?

The commission investigating the AZAL plane crash near Aktau has released a preliminary report. He did not create a sensation, as he confirmed the versions that Baku had about what happened to the liner. As expected, the board was subjected to serious external influences, as a result of which vital systems failed, which eventually resulted in the crash of the Embraer-190.

As noted in the report, an initial inspection of the preserved fragments revealed numerous through and through damage of various sizes and shapes in the tail section of the fuselage, keel and stabilizer, elevators and rudders. Similar damage was found on the aircraft's left engine and left wing, as well as on the aircraft's assemblies and components. In some places, the damage has a regular rectangular shape. Additional examinations will be conducted to determine the causes of the damage.

Work has begun on the final report, which, according to the Chicago ICAO Convention, must be prepared within a year after the crash. It's February now, and there's still a lot of time before December 25th. In principle, the main work has already been done, and it is hardly worth delaying the final conclusions until the end of the year. Although the report does not name the specific causes of the disaster and the means by which the plane was damaged, the materials available to the investigation speak for themselves. It is clear that this is not enough for an investigation under international rules. But delaying the case is unlikely to have a positive impact on the region, or rather on relations between Azerbaijan and Russia. It is necessary to put an end to this issue in order to stop the widening gap between the two countries. This is happening through the fault of the Russian side, and it is possible to stop the further deterioration of the situation by putting all the dots over the "and".

The crew had their first problems at 05:13:31 - an impact occurred and the autopilot shutdown alarm went off. At 05:13:32, the main control systems failed. At 05:23:11, the pilots reported a complete loss of control of the aircraft.

It is already clear to everyone that the birds are relevant only insofar as they were mentioned once by the crew. It could not have occurred to the pilots that they had come under air defense fire, so the first thought after the impact was a collision with birds. But there are no birds on the planet that would be able to pierce the metal body of an airplane in dozens of places and turn its insides. The oxygen tank did not explode either. That was also the crew's guess, the first thing that came to mind out of the possibility.

All these conclusions can be drawn from the materials of the preliminary report. How can we find an answer to the question of whether the crew of the Azerbaijani plane was warned about the Carpet plan? From the negotiations on the ground, in which the pilot of the Azerbaijani flight did not participate, it becomes clear that the Grozny dispatcher received information about the operation at 5:21:42, but for some reason did not inform the crew about it, continuing to assume from the pilots that the AZAL flight collided with birds. It turns out that as many as 8 minutes passed between the strike on the plane and the transmission of information about the "Carpet" to the dispatcher. This means that when our flight was over Grozny, the dogfight was already underway, which the crew did not suspect.

It should be emphasized that the first problems of the aircraft arose precisely because of external influences. The investigation showed that the vessel was in a fully serviceable condition, there were no technical problems. This has already been proven and there is no need to make any assumptions about it. The Russian side is not building them. The main thing that Russian propaganda has focused on is denying Russia's guilt. What kind of miracle does the northern neighbor expect from additional examinations? Is it really waiting for bird feathers to be found among the punctured aircraft structures? The versions about the involvement of someone else in the tragedy, encroaching on Baku's relations with Moscow, are also not serious. The Russian side itself is currently causing the greatest damage to Baku's relations with Moscow. If from the very beginning she had not behaved from the height of her "greatness" and wounded pride, the current cold snap would not have happened. In Azerbaijan, everyone understands and accepts the fact that the plane was not shot down purposefully. It was a tragic accident caused by negligence, incompetence, and lack of proper coordination between the civil and military services of the Russian Federation or, if we take it from the North Caucasus.

Another somewhat dishonest approach was to accuse the dead pilots of the aircraft of unprofessionalism and error. Earlier, some Russian experts argued that it was a mistake to send a dying ship to Aktau. At the same time, the condition of the aircraft and damage to the hydraulic systems were completely overlooked. The preliminary report of the Crash Investigation Commission clearly shows all the stages of the plane's death in chronological order. When the commander decided to fly to Aktau, the plane was practically out of control. Today, having read the report, some honest Russian aviation specialists admit that this decision of the crew was the only correct one in that situation. Because with the destroyed hydraulics, the ship would not have been able to overcome the mountains and would have crashed. And in this case, there would definitely be no survivors. The decision made by our pilots was the only right one, and that's what saved the lives of 29 people. Experts admit that the pilots acted extremely professionally.

Unfortunately, the preliminary report, although it confirmed all the versions of the Azerbaijani side, does not provide an opportunity for official and specific accusations. As long as new examinations are carried out, insinuations will continue, and relations will deteriorate. Let's hope they don't cross the point of no return.