Yerevan's European Bluff

On the last day of the Munich Security Conference, panel discussions on the enlargement of the European Union took place. During the discussions, Armenia was completely forgotten. Probably, the good news about the vote in the Armenian parliament, when the bill on the beginning of the process of joining the European Union was adopted, has not yet reached Munich.

It should be recalled that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is participating in the Munich Conference, which makes this fact even more piquant in the eyes of the Armenian audience.

If their own people tried to pretend that they did not notice anything, the opposition did not ignore the forgetfulness of the conference participants, unleashing anger on Pashinyan. Today, the media quoted Tigran Abrahamyan, a member of the opposition parliamentary faction. Abrahamyan sadly reported that he had been closely following the panel discussions and had not heard a single mention of Armenia during the hour and a half of the discussion. According to him, heated discussions were going on around the possible EU membership of the Western Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Moldova and Ukraine. Even Georgia, which has fallen out of favor, was mentioned, but Armenia, which is already mewing and wants to please, was not.

The oppositionist considers it strange that Armenia was not remembered at all. The country is adopting a draft law on EU accession, but no one mentions it in discussions on this topic. "The 'determination' of the authorities of the Republic of Armenia to sell to the citizens of Armenia the promise to join the EU, to lead them on the path to a brighter future, receives zero response from competent EU officials, which proves once again that Armenia continues to follow the path of adventures in foreign policy," Abrahamyan said.

Abrahamyan represents the pro-Russian opposition, which opposes Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU and its entry into the European Union. It is clear that the country will not be able to be a member of two organizations at the same time. Meanwhile, in Yerevan, they believe that one thing does not interfere with the other. Even if we remove the political aspect, these organizations have different regulatory frameworks, and Armenia is not so valuable to the EU that exceptions should be made for it. The forgetfulness of the participants in the discussions in Munich confirms this once again.

It should be recalled that on February 12, the Armenian parliament adopted in the first reading a draft law on the beginning of accession to the European Union. This decision did not cause much enthusiasm even in Armenia itself. Many people realize that the country is completely unprepared for this process, and more importantly, Europe is not ready to embrace it. We talk about this without mockery or ridicule. It's not really funny at all. Armenia is our toxic neighbor, which will not get back on the right path, and the games being played around it only complicate the situation. It is clear that the European Union does not need this country and is unlikely to ever really become a member, but the vibrations created by this uncertainty negatively affect the prospects for peace in the region, because they give Yerevan hope to be on the strong side and dictate terms. Perhaps, in the status of an EU member, this country would be less toxic from the point of view of regional security than in limbo, when it barely holds its balance in the space between two chairs. So we are not at all happy with the confirmation from Munich that Armenia's accession to the EU is a bluff.

As noted in the draft law adopted on February 12, "The Republic of Armenia, expressing the will of the people of the Republic of Armenia, setting the task of making the Republic of Armenia a safe, secure, developed and prosperous country, announces the beginning of the process of the Republic of Armenia's accession to the European Union." The draft must pass the second reading in order to become law. And then what?

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk compared the draft law on EU accession to Armenia's purchase of a ticket to the Titanic. We will not compare the European Union with the Titanic, but it is quite witty. According to the Russian vice Speaker, the EAEU and the EU are incompatible.

Does Armenian Economy Minister Papoyan realize this incompatibility when he says that the country is not going to leave the EAEU? Armenia has been connected with the Eurasian space traditionally and for a long time. The labor market provided by this space cannot be replaced by Europe. But this does not mean that after the abolition of the visa regime with the EU, half of the Armenian population will not move to European countries. This will happen with one hundred percent probability. No one will allow Armenia to use the customs and trade preferences and benefits of the EU and the EAEU at the same time. Having freedom of movement in both Europe and Eurasia is nonsense, you know. It's the same as being a member of both NATO and the CSTO at the same time and participating in conflicts on one side or the other.

The draft law adopted by the Armenian Parliament is very beautifully written about development and prosperity. But practice shows that development and prosperity after joining the European Union awaits only those who have developed and prospered before. EU membership does not automatically mean that all problems disappear. On the contrary, new ones may be added to the existing ones. When you get something, you have to give something back. Armenia is currently standing at the very end of a long queue of people who have been waiting at the door of the European Union for many years. The countries that have previously received candidate status are Turkiye (since 1999), North Macedonia (2005), Montenegro (2010), Serbia (2012), Albania (2014), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2022), Moldova (2022), Ukraine (2022) and Georgia (2023). Ukraine has been waiting for candidate status for almost twenty years, and it is not a fact that Armenia will not have to stand at the "window" even longer. It's not even Europe.

The first and last post-Soviet countries to be admitted to the European Union were the Baltic States. Their accession to the EU was organic, expected and did not surprise anyone. By becoming part of the EU, these countries have been able to improve macroeconomic indicators and living standards. It should be noted that both of these indicators in the Baltic States have always been higher than in other Soviet republics, including Armenia. Although the Baltic States were considered Europe by default, the rejection of an autonomous existence after the collapse of the Union cost Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia considerable losses.

We don't know what Armenia expects from joining the EU, but Armenian economists should pay attention to some nuances. These nuances are determined by the rules and laws in force in the European Union. Many large enterprises were closed in the Baltic States. For example, a factory for the production of buses and radios has closed in Latvia, and a metallurgical plant has ceased to exist in Estonia. The reason is that the EU has its own division of labor, and these countries had no right to produce buses or weld metal. But the agricultural sector suffered the most. Latvia was once the first in the USSR to produce sugar beet and sugar. After joining the EU, she had to close factories and eliminate acreage, because according to the "staffing table" sugar is produced by Danish companies. Now Latvia buys sugar from its EU counterparts.

Armenia has high hopes for agricultural exports to Europe, or rather, for its transfer from the EAEU to the EU. Meanwhile, there will be even more problems here than in other industries. Let's recall the conflict that arose when agricultural products poured into Europe from the warring Ukraine. These products were cheaper than those produced by EU farmers. Thus, cheaper Ukrainian grain began to displace Polish products from European markets, in particular from Germany. Not only Polish, but also German farmers, who were at a loss because of this, rose to their feet. The market is painted, the stalls are distributed, and every new seller, especially the one who tries to bring down the price, will be objectionable. So Armenian apricots will face fierce competition. Being an EU trading partner and fitting into trade patterns as an EU member are two different things.

And what else our neighbors should not forget is that they do not have borders with the European Union, do not have a logistical connection with Europe and are far away from it. That is, problems are everywhere. It would be much more correct to focus on regional cooperation, because only in this cooperation can Armenia really develop and prosper.

Bluffing about joining the EU is a completely unnecessary undertaking that only delays solving real problems. First of all, it slows down the peace process. Armenia is in a waiting mode for favorable messages from Europe. And they forget to mention it at the Munich Conference...