Nagorno Karabakh: No longer abstract and distant for EU

Armenian leader Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, met twice. No progress was reported, but the region is growing in importance for a power once relatively remote from the South Caucasus, the European Union.

RFE/RL Armenian Service director Hrair Tamrazian and Azerbaijani Service correspondent Kenan Aliyev sat down with Peter Semneby, the European Union's Special Representative for the South Caucasus about Nagorno Karabakh, and asked why Brussels is showing greater interest in Nagorno Karabakh and what the European Union is doing to help promote a resolution to this frozen conflict.

RFE/RL: What is your outlook on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict? Are you hopeful the issue will be resolved?

Peter Semneby: I've been asked very often in the last few months whether I'm an optimist or a pessimist regarding Nagorno Karabakh and relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I would say that I'm neither. I don't want to say that I'm an optimist, because so far it's always been the pessimists who have been proven right in this conflict. Still, one should always maintain hope, and I'm still hopeful that this conflict will be resolved soon. This is a very good moment for the region. It's a time when there are no major domestic considerations in the countries. It's also a time when the European Union is taking a much stronger interest in the region, in both countries, which is demonstrated by the inclusion of all of the Southern Caucasus into the European Neighborhood Policy. Of course, the European Union does this in the anticipation that the region will develop together and that the links will be reestablished between the countries, and that joint products will be developed that can benefit the further development and the prosperity of all countries in the region.

RFE/RL: The International Crisis Group, a think tank, recently came out with a report urging the EU to be more engaged in conflict resolution in the region because it has the best leverage there, both financially and institutionally. Do you agree that the EU should put a priority on this issue?

Semneby: There is a lot that the European Union can do. There was also a political signal sent when the mandate of the European Union Special Representative was changed from a rather passive role in terms of conflict resolution, as opposed to assisting conflict resolution. Now he is expected to contribute to conflict resolution. That change of wording may not change very much in practice. But it is an important political signal. What is changing in practice is the resources and the instruments that the European Union has at its disposal. When the European Neighborhood Policy starts to take effect with the new financial perspective of the European Union in 2007, there will be considerable resources available for various activities, not least related to conflict resolution and support of the development and rehabilitation of the conflict areas. Already at this stage, if there is a resolution, if there is an agreement between the parties, there are considerable rapid-reaction funds that the EU can also put at the disposal of the two governments [of Armenia and Azerbaijan] to repair what has been broken by the conflict.

RFE/RL: Are your authorities and powers much wider now than those of your predecessors?

Semneby: They're not much wider, but the EU has sent a political signal that it wants to engage in conflict resolution. In terms of Nagorno Karabakh, it does not mean that the EU is a part of the Minsk Group process [conducted under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe]. That process is one that was established a long time ago, and I sincerely hope that it will now lead to a settlement, to a resolution -- or at least to the beginning of a settlement, because I think this will be a long process also. There will be issues that will also have to be dealt with along the way. The important thing now is that there is a framework settlement under the auspices of the Minsk Group to build on in the future. The role of the EU in this conflict will be to support the settlement. Once a basic settlement, a framework settlement, is reached, most of the resources that I mentioned that the EU has at its disposal can be released.

RFE/RL: Nagorno Karabakh is not an easy conflict to resolve. Attempts have so far been unsuccessful and may not be successful for many more years. Why has the EU decided that now is the time to become involved in conflict resolution?

Semneby: The reasons why the EU is more interested now than in the past has to do, of course, with the change of the environment in which we are living. The European Union is enlarging. Very soon it will have two members bordering on the Black Sea -- including the country where we are at the moment, Romania. The EU has started to negotiate for membership with Turkey. And that changes the perspective. What happens in the Southern Caucasus is no longer something abstract and distant. It is becoming an area of direct concern to the EU. It's also an area that is important for energy resources. It's important because it's close to very volatile regions to the south. The Middle East, all the problems that we're facing with Iran have also focused attention on the Southern Caucasus. And it's also an important aspect of EU relations with our biggest and most important partner country in the east, and that is Russia.

RFE/RL: Turning to Russia, the Caucasus reportedly figured in discussions at the EU-Russia summit on May 25. Was Nagorno Karabakh on the agenda? Are there instances where Russia is heavy-handed in its foreign policy in this area, and if so, do you express your concern?

Semneby: When the Caucasus is discussed with Russia, the three frozen conflicts that we have in the area are obviously high on the agenda. These conflicts -- in particular, the ones in Georgia -- are a direct issue in our relations with Russia. What I hope and believe is that we will be able to resolve the two conflicts in Georgia together with Russia, because I fundamentally believe that it is in Russia's interests to have stable neighbors along all its borders and neighbors with which it maintains predictable and friendly relations. And only when the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been resolved once and for all will the problematic relationship between Russia and Georgia become normal.

RFE/RL: How much do you engage in dialogue with governments in the South Caucasus on democracy issues? There are those in Azerbaijan, for example, who say that the EU and other Western powers are not doing enough to remind the government of its commitment to promote democracy and respect human rights. How do you respond to such criticism?

Semneby: Fundamentally, we regard the countries in the South Caucasus as partners. And what you have to do with partners is you have to discuss the issues and you have to agree on what needs to be done. That takes some time, because our thinking has developed in different contexts, historically and otherwise. Through an intensive relationship over the course of the last few years, I do think that we have come to a common understanding of what the standards are that need to be fulfilled. The proof of that is that we have in fact agreed more or less on quite extensive Action Plans to implement the European Neighborhood Policy, which includes the most important parts of the EU acquis [communitaire, the European Union's body of laws], in terms of democracy, human rights, rule of law, and so on. This is the first step. We will have the Action Plans very soon. I'm convinced that the last parts of the negotiations will be done very soon and they will be signed. That marks a new step in our relations, when the focus will be on the implementation of those action plans.

RFE/RL: What will happen if they do not implement this action plan? There are OSCE commitments, there are Copenhagen commitments to have free and fair elections, to not have political prisoners. According to the Council of Europe, Azerbaijan still has political prisoners. So what guarantee is there that this Action Plan will be signed? Many think the government is using it as a tool to show they're pro-Western so they can stay in power.

Semneby: I think that the EU has proven in other cases that it does have considerable transformational power, and I very strongly believe that through the carrots and sticks that the EU will have at its disposal as part of the Action Plans that there will be such a transformational power in the Southern Caucasus. That is not to say it will be easy. We have seen many of the most difficult issues in other countries that have acceded to the European Union only being resolved at the very final stages. Here we do have an issue that we have to look at, since we don't have a membership perspective in the European Neighborhood Policy, one of the most important carrots is not present. But I think there are still enough instruments of the same kind that have been very successfully applied in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe that can also be used in the South Caucasus.

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