Iran may be able to build a nuclear weapon by 2009

To do so, Iran would have needed to start construction this year on a facility able to produce weapons-grade uranium, physicist David Albright, who inspected nuclear sites in neighboring Iraq, wrote in the July-August edition of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Albright based his scenario on interviews and scientific data. Iran insists it intends only to enrich uranium for use in a power plant, Bloomberg reports.

The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna said June 8 that it can't be sure that Iran isn't hiding a nuclear- weapons program. Iran concealed nuclear work from IAEA inspectors for 18 years, until 2003. The U.S. and European Union are offering Iran incentives to stop enriching uranium.

The three years that Iran needs to build a bomb means there's enough time for other nations "to pursue aggressive diplomatic options" to persuade the Islamic Republic to end the program, Albright wrote. The estimate reinforces that Iran "must forswear" any enrichment capability, according to the scientist.

After construction and testing of a secret facility, Iran could use as few as 1,500 centrifuges to produce 28 kilograms (62 pounds) of highly enriched uranium per year, according to Albright. A weapon requires at least 20 kilograms of the metal.

Technical difficulties such as malfunctioning centrifuges used in the enrichment process probably will hamper Iran's ability to construct a nuclear weapon until after 2009, he wrote in the Chicago-based magazine. Albright heads the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

Iran could also use its Natanz production facility for a bomb if technicians decide to reconfigure the plant's centrifuges to make highly enriched uranium, Albright said. The Natanz facility, under IAEA supervision, was designed to make low- enriched uranium suitable for power plants.

The U.S. government's Intelligence Review estimated that Iran is about 10 years away from producing the main ingredient for a nuclear weapon, the Washington Post said on Aug. 2, citing unidentified people familiar with the report. Iran may be able to produce a nuclear bomb by 2010, the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies estimated on May 24.

The U.S. suspects the Iranian drive to produce enriched uranium is a precursor to building a weapon, in contravention of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. Iran says the fuel is needed for electricity generation.