Sergey Markedonov: "Azerbaijan won't be allowed to start war in Karabakh"

In his words, neither Georgians nor Abkhazians control the territory where the operations started. "This operation gives Georgians the opportunity to hold talks with the 'other state structure' of Abkhazia bypassing official Sukhumi. However, this territory is too small to talk about it seriously," Markedonov said.

The political scientist underlined that Azerbaijan's wish to follow Georgia's example and launch hostilities against Nagorno Karabakh is just unsound. "The operation in Kodori is just a walk while incursion into Karabakh is a lingering and bloody war Azerbaijan can lose. Karabakh's security zone is a deeply echeloned defence while the "Defence Army of Karabakh" cannot be compared to a group of Georgian 'guerrillas' led by Emzar Kvitsiani. The territory of Karabakh is really controlled what cannot be said about the Kodori valley. There is one more nuance: late Heydar Aliyev has created an image of a victim for Azerbaijan in the West. Now, if military operations start in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict region this image will immediately crack. Moreover, Europe, the U.S. and of course Russia will be against Azerbaijan's aggression. Thus, adding the factor of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline Azerbaijan will not start war. It just won't be allowed," Markedonov said.

/APA/