Kommersant: "Russia splits up GUAM"

Negotiations between the Russian and Moldovan foreign ministers took place yesterday in Moscow. Both ministers reported progress in Russian-Moldovan relations afterward. A Russian deputy foreign minister has also been sent to Chisinau. He is to find the process of unfreezing relations between the countries. Moscow is moving toward Chisinau in an effort to neutralize support in GUAM for Georgia as its standoff with that country continues.
Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Andrei Stratan arrived in Moscow yesterday. He was on his way to China but, in spite of his transit plans, he was warmly greeted by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. A source in the Russian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant that the meeting of the minister was "informal but productive." "They dined together and spoke about their business at the same time," he explained. Their business was the renewal of economic cooperation and the issue of Transdniestria, which has been a sore spot in Russian-Moldovan relations since Moldova rejected a Russian settlement plan for it in 2003.

The cordial greeting the Moldovan deputy prime minister received in Moscow bears witness to improving Russian-Moldovan relations after Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin proposed reconciliation when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in August, after received the cold shoulder for three years.

Moscow was ready to reconcile. Last week, Russian Minister of Education and cochairman of the Russian-Moldovan intergovernmental commission Andrey Fursenko flew to Chisinau. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin also departed fro Chisinau yesterday. He will be responsible for a speedy return to settlement in Transdniestria.

Chisinau and Tiraspol broke off communications in March of this year after Moldova and Ukraine imposed a new customs procedure on Transdniestrian goods. Authorities in Tiraspol called the innovation an "economic blockade" and pulled out of negotiations. Now Karasin has come to make peace between them. The deputy minister is scheduled to meet with Voronin in Chisinau and then leader of the unrecognized Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic Igor Smirnov in Tiraspol. Transdniestrian Foreign Minister Valeri Litskai acknowledged for Kommersant that negotiations may be renewed next week. "In view of the impossibility of a full-scale dialog, Russia began shuttle diplomacy, and at a very high level. Consultations have been going on for a month and there is a proposal to meet in Odessa on October 18. We'll see what proposals Karasin brings us on that matter," Litskai said.

Karasin has one more goal in Moldova, which may be even more important. That is settling Russian-Moldovan relations. "This visit should be seen in the context of work to remove the barriers that hinder the development of our relations," a source in the Russian delegation told Kommersant. "It is time for us go from an unclear mode of communications to real cooperation. Now all the issues that have accumulated are being worked out, including economic issues. We plan to have a positive resolution to them by next month." That source added that a meeting of the Russian-Moldovan intergovernmental commission has been scheduled for November in Moscow, at which the resumption of exports of Moldovan wine to Russia will likely be decided on.

There are rumors that the Kremlin has made another broad gesture of peace to Chisinau with the replacement of its current ambassador there, Nikolay Ryabov. Ryabov was sent to Chisinau at the height of the standoff between Chisinau and Moscow and has distinguished himself with sharp criticism of Moldovan authorities and ostentatious support for Transdniestria. Now, Kommersant has learned, Ryabov will not even accompany Karasin while he is in Moldova.

This warming of relations comes in the midst of Russia's deteriorating relations with Georgia. In that light, reconciliation with Moldova is quite beneficial to Russia. After the Voronin regime was placed on the Kremlin's blacklist of unfriendly states three years ago, Moldova turned sharply toward the West. Voronin became noticeable friendlier with leaders of the color revolutions Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine and Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia and the anti-Russian rhetoric of Moldovan authorities differed little from that of the Georgian leadership. Now that the Kremlin has made several concessions to Chisinau, it may pull Moldova back into its sphere of influence.

Moscow has already received the first dividends of the thaw in relations with Chisinau. Moldova, which, along with Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan, is a member of GUAM, has behaved with great pragmatism throughout the Russian-Georgian conflict. When opposition parliamentarians lobbied to adopt a statement condemning Moscow's sanctions against Tbilisi, the ruling communist party quashed it.

That behavior toward its GUAM ally was due to the fact that the stakes are high for Moldova. "Agreements on practically all the sore spots in Russian-Moldovan relations are ready now for signing," a source in the Moldovan government told Kommersant. "A positive solution is expected in the near future for the wine problem. And fees for Russian gas and electricity are expected to be agreed on by November 1." In those circumstances, Moldova has decided not to risk annoying Moscow with involvement in the Russian-Georgian conflict, all the more so that Georgia is illustrative of how Russia can respond to uncooperative neighbors.

/Kommersant/