Diplomacy awakens on Nagorno Karabakh conflict

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Robert Kocharian, are to meet on the sidelines of a CIS summit in Minsk to give a mandate to their foreign ministers to explore ways for progress on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

The new round of diplomacy comes as a surprise to many since it comes at a time when Armenia is bracing for parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2007. Few expected that the two leaders would meet again after their high-hope February talks behind closed doors at Rambouillet Castle near Paris failed to announce any progress.

Mediators from the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE) said at the time that the position of the parties on certain "sensitive principles" have remained identical to those they had before the meeting.

International pressure and Armenia's growing isolation in the region may be the key reason why Armenia is opting for a fresh diplomatic drive on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, one of the most intricate disputes threatening stability in the southern Caucasus, home to considerable Caspian gas and oil resources. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced during a 1988-1994 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh, an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan.

Armenia, say diplomats familiar with the issue, is feeling increasingly isolated in the region as its rival Azerbaijan proceeds with regional energy and transportation projects with Turkey and Georgia.

Azerbaijan is sending part of its Caspian oil to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan via neighboring Georgia with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which was officially launched in the summer of this year. A parallel pipeline to transport part of its natural gas to Turkey's eastern terminal of Erzurum is also drawing near for completion.

Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia are working on a regional integration project, as they proceed with plans to build a railway linking the three countries.

Armenia's position on Nagorno Karabakh is costing the Yerevan administration dearly. Neighboring Turkey closed its border gates more than a decade ago and severed diplomatic ties to protest the occupation of Nagorno Karabakh by Armenian troops, bringing huge trade losses for the landlocked country.

Ankara says normalization of ties depends on Armenia's withdrawal from the enclave and whether Armenia drops its support for Armenian diaspora efforts to win international recognition for allegations of an Armenian genocide at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire.

Armenia's economic hardships have grown further recently due to a Russian transportation blockade on Georgia, the main route for Armenia to reach the outside world.

Azerbaijan, on the other hand, sits on a significant part of the Caspian energy wealth and has been channeling money to boost its defense structure. Oil and gas money has brought a record high economic growth to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev has pledged to equal his country's defense budget to the entire budget of Armenia.

But the Aliyev administration, under domestic pressure to do more on the Nagorno Karabakh dispute, is inclined for diplomacy to achieve some progress since a military option would cost the country much more. After all, the country has only recently begun to enjoy wealth and political stability as the oil and gas money has started entering the national budget.

"The Aliyev administration wants to be seen as doing something on this," said Sedat Lachiner of the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK). "In addition, they think they are in a powerful position in terms of international law, [they think] that they are right and thus push for diplomacy."

But although diplomacy is coming to the fore again, few hold out hope that it will pave the way for noteworthy progress in the long-running conflict.

According to Lachiner, even without parliamentary elections approaching, Kocharian, who comes from Nagorno Karabakh and whose hawkish stance helps him keep political support at home, is adamant on his uncompromising views, which include insistence on the independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

Ilter Turkmen, a former Turkey's foreign minister, ruled out the possibility for a breakthrough from Tuesday's talks, saying no progress is likely without serious international pressure on the parties, notably on Armenia, to move ahead toward a solution. Turkish Daily News