India to overtake China in economic growth in 2028

By Alimat Aliyeva

India may overtake China in terms of economic growth by 2028, Azernews reports, citing foreign media outlets.

According to forecasts by Barclays and other investment banks, India may become the engine of global economic growth instead of China during the next five-year term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (the country's general elections will be held in May).

Bloomberg Economics estimates are more optimistic: in the baseline scenario, by the end of this decade, India's economic growth rate will accelerate to 9%, and China's will slow down to 3.5%. Under the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes the growth of the Indian economy by 6.5%, India will be able to overtake China in 2037.
Now India's GDP is $3.5 trillion, and China's is $17.8 trillion. China's economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023. India's GDP in the third fiscal quarter (October-December) grew by 8.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.

According to RBC, accelerating India's GDP growth is one of Modi's main election promises: in 2023, he stated that if he heads the government for the third time, he will do everything to raise the country's economy "to the first place in the world."

The authorities are trying to make it more competitive, which attracts the West. However, foreign companies that want to do business in India face various difficulties, from bad roads to bureaucracy and a shortage of skilled workers. To fix this and bypass China in terms of GDP growth, the authorities need to focus on infrastructure construction, urban development, as well as the quality of the workforce.

In the summer of 2023, Goldman Sachs experts assumed that India's economy would become the second largest in the world by 2075, overtaking Japan, Germany and the United States and coming close to China. According to the bank's forecasts, the size of China's economy in 52 years will amount to 57 trillion dollars, India - 52.5 trillion, the United States - 51.5 trillion.