Asteroid 2024 YR4 likely to pass near Earth with minimal impact risk

Global space agencies have lowered the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to under 1 percent, suggesting that a catastrophic impact is unlikely. However, the asteroid is still expected to pass unusually close to our planet, offering scientists a rare opportunity to study it up close.

Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency (ESA) commented, "We don’t expect the impact probability to rise above 1 percent for its close pass with Earth in 2032. The most probable scenario is that the impact risk will continue to decrease, possibly even reaching zero."

Concerns about asteroid 2024 YR4 were first raised last December when astronomers observed its potential collision course with Earth in 2032. The asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, could cause significant damage if it struck a city. Over the following weeks, telescopes and space agencies around the world closely monitored its path, refining their predictions. On February 17, the impact risk peaked at 1 in 32, but within days, it dropped to a 1 in 67 chance, or a 1.5 percent risk.