New poll predicts narrow "Yes" in Turkish referendum

A narrow majority of Turks plan to vote "Yes" in a Sunday referendum on government-backed constitutional reforms but undecided voters could sway the outcome in the other direction, a new poll showed on Monday. The referendum is being seen as an important gauge of support for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party ahead of a 2011 parliamentary election.

The survey by private pollster A&G showed that 51 percent of respondents planned to vote "Yes" to the reforms against 49 percent who planned to vote against them. The poll said 10-11 percent of voters were undecided.

"The winner of the referendum will be whoever motivates the voters to go out and vote," A&G director Adil Gur told Taraf daily. "It will be a tight result. It's not going to be a surprise if 'no' wins," Gur said.

Turkish asset prices may move little if Turks approve constitutional changes by a modest margin, while markets will suffer if the result of the vote is "No".

Erdogan says the reform package will bring the constitution, drafted after a 1980 military coup, closer in line with those in the European Union, which Turkey seeks to join. The 26-article reform package include changes in how senior judges are selected. Opposition parties in parliament oppose the reforms and argue that they will enable the government to boost its influence over the judiciary.

A "No" would be a serious blow to the government's reform plans and would hurt AK party morale going into the parliamentary election, due by July 2011.


/World Bulletin/