Baku builds relations with Trump

Judging by the first statements of Donald Trump, he intends to seriously tackle acute domestic and international problems. In modern terms, Trump is entering his second presidential term as an anti-crisis manager. Even before his inauguration, Donald Trump announced the goals and objectives of his foreign policy course, which, in fact, mean claims to a new redistribution of spheres of influence. At the heart of this redistribution is, first of all, the struggle for resources, which Trump does not consider necessary to hide. During a rally on the eve of his inauguration, Trump said he was going to prevent World War III, end the conflict in Ukraine, stop the chaos in the Middle East, and build an Iron Dome in the United States "to prevent possible attacks on the United States.

The new US president also promised to deal with migrants and crime. The latter is indeed extremely relevant for the United States. So, Trump's stated policy of expelling all Latin American migrants is another "multi-step" of the future owner of the White House. After all, those who have a negative attitude towards the current government will return to Cuba, Venezuela and Mexico. And this will make it easier for Trump to strengthen his influence in the former "backyard" of the United States.

And the world has really changed. As Alexander Yakovenko, Deputy General Director of the Russia Today media group and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation, noted in a recent interview with RIA-Novosti, "Trump's statements about claims to Greenland and the Panama Canal, as well as the annexation of Mexico and Canada to the United States, may seem extravagant in our familiar post-war coordinate system: sovereignty, inviolability of borders." and the like. But is there another way to look at it? b then everything will look much more realistic. Especially if we recognize that the current change of power in Washington has all the signs of a revolution, both in domestic and foreign policy. Despite the fact that not only for the United States, but also for many countries of the world, including all Western ones (as we have seen over the past three years), the question is not about maintaining the status quo, which cannot exist by definition in an era of tectonic changes in the world, but about survival in a qualitatively changed environment. habitat. The fact is that the post-war Yalta-Potsdam system will be 80 years old this year. It's a long time. I would like to refer to a recent report by the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO) with an annual forecast for 2025. It concludes that the "almost complete collapse" of this system "with its treaties and institutions."

So unlike Biden, Trump fits perfectly into these new paradigms. In any case, according to external signs. Trump is clearly not simple, and it is impossible to know what lies in the depths of his personality. My American colleague told me in a private conversation after Trump's first ascension to the presidency of the United States: "Trump has amazed many. Many did not expect his victory. He has a reputation for being a businessman and a playboy. It turned out that this is just the tip of the iceberg." There is no doubt that Trump is not standard, he is interesting. And unlike Biden, he's in great physical shape.

One more nuance. Trump, unlike a number of European politicians, did not play the "rogue Russia" card. He immediately stated clearly and distinctly that he would negotiate with Putin on the future of Ukraine. Even on the eve of the inauguration, Trump instructed authorized persons from his team to arrange a telephone conversation with Putin within a few days after taking office.  And on the day of the inauguration, the Russian leadership congratulated Trump on taking office. At a meeting of the Security Council, Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict.

Trump understands that there is a pool of big players. And Russia undoubtedly belongs to this pool. The collective West is not in the economic, financial, and moral-political (as they used to say in Soviet times) form to seriously influence anything at all. Countries with multimillion-dollar debts, including to the United States, are suitable only for noise clearance. Zelensky realized this too late. But it never reached Pashinyan.

What has the Biden administration, and Blinken in particular, managed to do during its time in office? The Biden administration, former Secretary of State Blinken, and the ex-president himself bear the lion's share of responsibility for the conflicts that have flared up. It is no coincidence that Trump announced the planned purge of the apparatus of a number of departments, primarily the US State Department. The staff of the US Foreign Ministry will not fit into the Trump paradigm and will not be able to cope with the new tasks. Now, I repeat, we are witnessing global changes in the world order. Trump described what was happening as a "revolution of common sense." And this definition applies not only to the domestic situation in the United States.

In the years after the 44-day war, Washington, represented by Blinken, has repeatedly attempted to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think Baku did the right thing by refusing American assistance.   And which Blinken is the middleman? Where are his exploits in this field? I don't know, maybe he's a great knight of cloak and dagger and works in the shadows, but an intermediary can't drown for one side. I think that official Baku will be able to build effective and mutually beneficial relations with the Trump administration as a promising regional power. And without Blinken.

Foreign policy should be based not on myths and long-decayed slogans such as "great Armenia", but on the basis of real, primarily economic interests of states. It is characteristic that Trump uses the term "deal" in relation to political agreements, including the proposed solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And, in my opinion, this is not a bad thing at all. Any foreign policy step of a state, both large and small, should have a pragmatic meaning. But these desires must be based on the real capabilities of the state, its potential. The players on the world stage are not equal. And a reasonable player will build such a system of interaction with the stronger pieces of the "international chessboard", which will give him the opportunity to strengthen his position. And not to escalate obviously hopeless conflict situations, as Pashinyan has been doing for several years. And he's not the only one.

It is no coincidence that Trump announced that she intends to sign a decree banning aid to other countries if it contradicts the strategic interests of the United States. It is clear that the strategic interests of the United States are, first of all, the interests of large national corporations. But this is understandable. Influence in other territories should be gained through investment and economic presence. As does the main competitor of the United States on the "great chessboard" China.

I'm not idealizing Trump in any way, but I've always believed that it's safer to negotiate, even with enemies, but on the basis of clear commitments. Vows of eternal friendship in return for economic and military assistance, assurances in the style of "feed us to your detriment, and we are your outpost," etc. - this is all a passing nature. I cannot say for sure which is more in such models of international relations - naivety, hypocrisy or hidden corruption schemes, I have seen different versions of such misalliances. Including in the post-Soviet space. As a rule, this led to serious problems in the end.

Trump, for all his disadvantages and penchant for extravagant statements, is a pragmatist. He is a businessman, not a rabid soldier or a caring dreamer. And that's why he's interesting.

By the way, the surname "Trump" translates as "trump." It seems that the new president of the United States has a whole deck of trumps in reserve. Let's see how he uses them.