Same old, same old – Armenia’s unchanging behavior on peace deal

By Akber Novruz

On January 6, at about 14:10, Armenian armed forces from positions near Digh settlement in the Gorus region once again opened fire on Azerbaijan Army positions in the direction of Zabukh settlement in the Lachin region. This provocation follows a similar incident on January 5, when Armenian forces fired on same Azerbaijani positions near Zabukh and Jagazur settlements, demonstrating a troubling pattern.

Armenia appears to be demonstrating a clear direction as we enter the new year. The most recent incident occurred four months ago, on September 5, in the Kalbajar region. Given the activity from both sides—particularly Armenia—regarding the signing of a peace treaty since that time, many were hopeful that an agreement would finally be reached. However, this has not come to pass.

Another noteworthy aspect of this incident is its timing. The Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan drew attention with the ideas he presented in his annual speech on December 31, just before the New Year holiday.

His address featured a recurring theme: “Real Armenia.” This phrase appeared no less than eleven times in the short, two-page message. Pashinyan emphasized the need for Armenia to focus on its true self, without delusions of territorial expansion. He said, “Real Armenia, the Republic of Armenia with an area of 29,743 square kilometres, must become the guiding ideology not only for the government and the parliamentary majority but also for every citizen of the Republic of Armenia.” Later, Pashinyan added, “We must change and transform, dear people, dear citizens of the Republic of Armenia.”

Notably, for the first time in several years following the war in 2020, Pashinyan did not mention "Artsakh" or "Nagorno-Karabakh" in his New Year’s message. Furthermore, there were no significant references to these "issues."

He even hinted at the need to amend the Armenian constitution, suggesting that territorial claims against neighbours were a harmful and outdated approach. It's indeed positive progress considering both parties 'deadlocked' processes. Yet, he remains ensnared in a web of lies and a flawed system. His stance on this issue remains inconsistent, as he has previously backtracked on his own remarks about constitutional changes and attempted to accuse Azerbaijan’s constitution of territorial claims against Armenia.

At the same time, in 2024, steps have been taken towards the militarization of Armenia, with the country becoming more aligned with the collective West. Despite this, Pashinyan did not mention military development in his address, leading some to believe that he was attempting to improve his party’s image by focusing on non-revisionist discourse. However, this is a deceptive strategy. Pashinyan’s actions show a clear intent to advance Armenia's military capabilities, while public rhetoric may suggest otherwise.

President Ilham Aliyev has once again highlighted the growing threat posed by Armenia’s militarization. In his address on the occasion of World Azerbaijanis Solidarity Day and the New Year, he voiced his concern over Armenia’s military buildup, stressing that it lacked a logical basis.

“If we were to note the most worrying moment for us this year, of course, it would be Armenia's armament. There is no logical explanation for this. Armenia has faced a complete fiasco with its policy of aggression. Their military defeats in 2020 and then 2023 should have shown them the right path. We were trying to do this and are continuing our efforts to this day. I have repeatedly urged them both in my official statements and during our negotiations with the Armenian side to stay away from this dangerous path.”

He warned that Armenia’s rapid militarization and large-scale armament posed a significant threat to regional stability.

“I believe that Armenia's large-scale armament campaign is yet another source of threat to the region. Therefore, let me say again, it is not too late for them to turn back from this dangerous path. The South Caucasus should be a region of peace, security and cooperation. Armenia's large-scale and rapid militarization and the supply of deadly weapons can disrupt this peace, the possible peace. I must also mention one thing. Azerbaijan will not simply observe this.”

This uptick in hostilities also comes amid Armenia's ongoing attempts to make decisions regarding the arrest of former generals and a thorough investigation into the mistakes made during the 44-day war. The scrutiny over past military failures raises questions about why Armenia justifies the actions of the war, even though it waged an aggressive conflict and acknowledges Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. This resurgence of military aggression only reaffirms Armenia's position as the aggressor in the conflict.

The harsh reality of Armenia’s military history and its persistent internal dysfunction points to a future where peace may remain elusive unless Armenia alters its course. The reality and the message is clear: Armenia’s arming itself against Azerbaijan, especially and most probably under the influence of Western powers, will only prolong instability and without meaningful reforms and genuine efforts toward peace, Armenia will remain trapped in a cycle of provocation and defeat.