Experts' opinion: Armenian president's remarks about independence of Nagorno-Karabakh affect peace process?

The statement by the Armenian President Serj Sargsyan on aspiration for independence of Nagorno-Karabakh is a provocation envisaged for the population of Armenia, which does not add positive in the negotiation process, experts say.

"Clearly Sargsyan's statement was made for domestic consumption. Unfortunately, it only serves to undermine the on-going peace process and increase the tension with Azerbaijan," said political analysts at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, an expert on the South Caucasus countries, Amanda Paul.

Addressing an official reception in honor of the republic's independence day on Sept. 21, Armenian President Serj Sargsyan declared that "Armenia moves in difficult, but naturally correct way, which is a way to the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and lasting peace", the official website of the president of Armenia reported.

Sargsyan's statement was made on the backdrop of the increasing suggestions of the Armenian political elite to recognize the independence of the separatist regime. Presented by the parliamentary faction of the Heritage Party, the bill on "recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic" will be discussed during the next four-day parliamentary session to be held in October, said the speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia Hovik Abramyan, Mediamax reported.

"The bill will be presented to discussions on an extra-ordinary basis," Abramyan said, addressing the opening of the autumn session of prliament.

According to experts, Sargsyan's statement on aspiration for the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh could negatively affect the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

It is regrettable that the Armenian leadership prefers to make such provocative statements instead of preparing its population for peace, said Amanda Paul.

"President Sargsyan needs to start anchoring his nation in the sea of reality: that being that in order to find a solution to Karabakh Armenia needs to make concessions," Paul said.

According to Paul, Yerevan needs to return the territories that they are currently occupying to  Azerbaijan; and that the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh is far from being determined.

Politics must not be based on history, Russian and Asian Programs Director at the World Security Institute Nikolai Zlobin told Trend, adding that this logic applies to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

"Armenia is a hostage to its own history, he said. The worst thing in situations like the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is when people only care about building their political careers as opposed to resolving problems," Zlobin told journalists in Moscow.

According to Zlobin, politics must not be based on history, as history is subjective and each nation propounds its own nationalized version of historical events.

According to Azerbaijani political scientist Tofig Abbasov, to vindicate himself, Sargsyan compelled to voice the only digestible argument of electorate "recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh republic".

"But the recognition of "NKR" and the continuation of the peace process are mutually exclusive," said Abbasov, an expert of Lider-TV analytical group. According to Abbasov, such statements are heard constantly in an environment where it is clear that the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is not on the agenda of discussions.
"It needs to push off all, including the Armenian representatives, from this imperative," Abbasov told Trend.

According to Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan, recognition of independence of "NKR" by Armenia can cause internal political changes, but will not facilitate resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

Observers believe that by taking belligerent position towards its neighbors and not making compromises, Armenia worsen its economic situation and position in the region.

According to Tofig Abbasov, in geopolitical positioning, of course, Armenia moves in a hard way and gradually descends to the sidelines. Responsibility for this falls on its political leadership, since Armenia had a choice, and the country had an excellent opportunity to embark on the path of development, the expert said.

"However, the rate on the most brutal confrontation with neighboring countries will inevitably bring it closer to the loss of real sovereignty. Today the Armenian establishment holds a serious exam before people, and the pale form of the government is an indicator of the status of affairs at the Armenian house," said Abbasov.  

Yerevan's idleness in improving its relations with Ankara is equivalent to political suicide, he said, Zlobin said.

"You can not drive yourself into situations where all doors are closed, the whole globalization goes through Russia, and this means that Russia is the owner of Armenia and the country simply has no choice," said the analyst.

According to Abbasov, Armenia has never aspired to peace and not thought about filling peacekeeping capacity. "Today, Armenia is a dangerous subject for a large region," he said.


/Trend/