Fitch lowers forecast of exchange prices for gas in world

By Alimat Aliyeva

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has lowered its forecast for the current year for global gas prices and maintained its forecast for oil prices, Azernews reports, citing the Fitch report.

"The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has lowered its forecasts for gas prices for 2024 due to weakening demand and the expectation of sufficient supply in the short term. Our basic forecasts for oil prices have not changed," the statement said.

Now the average exchange prices for gas in Europe, according to Fitch's expectations, this year will amount to $ 10 per 1,000 cubic feet (instead of $ 12 last forecast), estimates for 2025 and 2026 remained unchanged - $ 10 and $ 8, respectively. At the same time, the agency presented a forecast for 2027: the cost of 1 thousand cubic feet will then average $ 7.

Price forecasts for gas in the American market have also been lowered: the agency expects that the average price for Henry Hub will be $ 2.5 per thousand cubic feet by the end of this year (previously - 3.25). The forecast was maintained for the next year and amounted to $3. However, in 2026, the price is now expected to be $3, not $2.75. Then, according to the agency's forecasts, gas will fall in price to $ 2.75 on average in 2027.

As for oil, the forecast for Brent crude oil has been maintained for the current year at $ 80 per barrel, for 2025 at $ 70, and for 2026 at $65. In 2027, the agency expects a price of $65 per barrel.

The average price of WTI oil, as previously expected, will be $75 per barrel by the end of this year, $65 in 2025, and $60 in 2026. In 2027, the agency expects the price to reach $ 60 per barrel.