Armenian expert: It would be strange for Armenia to sign protocols, but not endorse them

What is your views on the Armenian Constitutional Court decision endorsing the Turkey-Armenia protocols?

The decision was expected and logical. It would be strange for Armenia to sign the protocols, but then not to confirm their legality. Someone will hardly imagine such a fantastic degree of separation of powers in the post-Soviet country. As for the political message to the world, it is also clear: Armenia fulfills its obligations and expects the same from Turkey.

Do you agree with the assertion that Armenian Constitutional Court decision on legitimacy of the Armenian-Turkish protocols means Armenian’s recognition of Turkey’s borders, rejecting claims to Turkish land even without the protocols’ approval by the parliament and the president of Armenia?

Not, of course. Declaring the protocols as conforming with the Constitution means that the parliament is empowered to put to them to vote and that it does not contradict country’s Constitution. The Constitutional Court is not empowered to do anything else. It cannot replace the parliament or president.

Will Turkish-Armenian protocols be ratified by the Armenian parliament? In your opinion, what will Turkey’s next step be?

At the moment the Armenian side is awaiting ratification of the protocols in the Turkish Parliament. If Turkey ratifies the protocols within a reasonable time, I think, it will not be difficult for the Armenian parliament  to ratify them  under current balance of coalition and the opposition.

In your opinion, will the Turkish-Armenian normalization and settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict take place as to two parallel processes?

No, I think that these processes cannot run in parallel as they have fundamentally different parameters, time perspective, balance and finally complexity.

Is there any risk that failure of attempts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by peaceful means can lead to a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

No, there is no such risk. The war is beneficial to none of the opposing sides. Risks associated with war are so much greater than the hypothetical benefits that no one will start a war. There may be many claims to the politicians in Yerevan, Baku, but I would not consider them fools.


A. Hasanov