Shoddy buildings biggest killer in Turkey quakes

Experts say there is a 50 percent chance that a devastating quake of at least magnitude of 7 will hit the metropolis of 13 million people within the next three decades.

"We must ready ourselves for such a large earthquake and the major concern should be the quality of buildings," Professor Haluk Eyidogan, president of the National Earthquake Council, told Reuters in an interview.

Set up by the government in 2000 after a big quake hit Istanbul, the council is made up of independent scientists who carry out research, inform the public and make strategy proposals.

"We risk deaths in excess of 100,000, depending on the time of day the quake hits, how near Istanbul is to the epicentre and how well buildings have been reinforced by then," Eyidogan said.

Almost 18,000 people were killed in 1999, 1,000 of them in Istanbul, when a strong earthquake hit north-western Turkey. But the epicentre in the Sea of Marmara was 100 km (60 miles) from the city, sharply limiting the death toll.

Still, many of the deaths then were blamed on sub-standard buildings and widespread corruption in the construction sector.

In an effort to improve Istanbul's readiness, a series of mock quake exercises were staged this month amid criticism that not enough has been done to protect the city, which is growing fast as the economy booms and the poor flood in from eastern Turkey.

Istanbul's governor, Muammer Guler, acknowledged that the authorities were racing against time to improve buildings.

A big quake could cause heavy or moderate damage to 18 percent of Istanbul's 1.6 million buildings, some dating back to the Roman, Byzantine and Ottoman periods, Eyidogan said.

This was because contractors and inspectors used fraudulent practices to circumvent legislation passed in 2000 to stamp out shoddy construction, he said.

Low prices for inspections encourage corruption and compromise building safety, Eyidogan added.

He said authorities should focus on securing hospitals, bridges, schools and community buildings.

Earlier this week Istanbul's municipality announced plans to spend $13 billion on transport projects by 2011.

But authorities are struggling to upgrade the city's infrastructure as more people move in.

Experts predict that by 2023 the city will have 20 million inhabitants and will only be able to properly accommodate 15 million of them, Eyidogan said.

"Some 200,000 people come here each year. Can you imagine that number arriving in Berlin, Paris, or London. It's a huge challenge for the municipality and its already stretched services," said Eyidogan. Reuters